Match Info

SM-sarja U20

Date: 30 January 2026, Friday


	Kärpät U20		Pelicans U20

	1	X	2
	2.9	4.2	1.78
	2.67	3.86	2
	2.77	4.19	2.05	Watch
	2.7	4	2
	2.81	3.94	2.05
	3.5	4	1.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.89 ↓ (3.5)	4.03 ↓ (4.17)	1.93 ↑ (1.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kärpät U20
31.1%

Draw
22.3%

Pelicans U20
46.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.3%

22.1%

51.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.4%

23%

49.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kärpät U20 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Pelicans U20 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Pelicans U20 might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kärpät U20 than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pelicans U20 than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Kärpät U20 - Pelicans U20 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 1)
12:31, 0 - 1, Paqvalin J. (G), Paqvalin A. (A), Chrons A. (A2)
2nd Period (2 - 0)
16:23, 1 - 1, Ruotsalainen V. (G), Viita F. (A), Jung S. (A2)
17:46, 2 - 1, Tauriainen A. (G), Viuhkola N. (A),
3rd Period (1 - 1)
15:53, 3 - 1, Viita F. (G), Viuhkola N. (A), Martinmaki K. (A2)
18:00, 3 - 2, Paqvalin A. (G), Paqvalin J. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kärpät U20 won 3.

In recent matches, Kärpät U20 has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Pelicans U20 is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Pelicans U20 may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Pelicans U20 will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kärpät U20 won 14 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 73:43. (average 3.7:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Kärpät U20 won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 34:13. (average 4.3:1.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
6	Pelicans Lahti U20	10	7	0	0	3	37:26	21
7	Karpat U20	12	5	3	0	4	40:35	21

Last Results with these Odds

Pelicans U20 - the odds 1.78 are the expected chance of winning is 51.67%, but this team recently wins 91% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kärpät U20
Finnish SM-sarja U20
24.01.26	Tappara U20 - Kärpät U20	6:1 ✺
23.01.26	Ilves U20 - Kärpät U20	4:3 OT ✺
16.01.26	RoKi U20 - Kärpät U20	2:7 ✺
10.01.26	Kärpät U20 - SaiPa U20	5:2 ✺
09.01.26	Kärpät U20 - JYP U20	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLWWL
- Pelicans U20
Finnish SM-sarja U20
23.01.26	Pelicans U20 - HPK U20	1:5 ✺
17.01.26	Pelicans U20 - HPK U20	2:0 ✺
16.01.26	Lukko U20 - Pelicans U20	0:3 ✺
10.01.26	Jokerit U20 - Pelicans U20	0:7 ✺
08.01.26	Pelicans U20 - Mikkelin Jukurit U20	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-sarja U20
21.09.25	Pelicans U20 - Kärpät U20	0:3
21.12.24	Kärpät U20 - Pelicans U20	1:6
19.10.24	Pelicans U20 - Kärpät U20	0:3
06.10.23	Pelicans U20 - Kärpät U20	4:2
08.09.23	Kärpät U20 - Pelicans U20	8:1
24.02.23	Kärpät U20 - Pelicans U20	6:1
28.10.22	Pelicans U20 - Kärpät U20	1:4

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