Match Info

SM-sarja U20 - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday


	Pelicans U20		HPK U20

	1	X	2
	1.8	4.34	2.85
	1.92	3.89	3.06
	1.92	4.07	3.13	Watch
	1.91	4	2.88
	1.89	4.05	3.12
	2.05	3.75	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↓ (2.04)	4.02 ↓ (4.05)	2.97 ↑ (2.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pelicans U20
47.1%

Draw
22.5%

HPK U20
30.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

22.7%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.7%

26%

28.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pelicans U20 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

HPK U20 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pelicans U20 than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for HPK U20 than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Pelicans U20 - HPK U20 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
2nd Period (0 - 1)
05:57, 0 - 1, Saarelma N. (G), Pulli T. (A), Toivonen V. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 3)
06:52, 1 - 1, Sivonen V. (G), Koskinen L. (A), Amhamdi O. (A2)
11:56, 1 - 2, Lehtonen O. (G), Toivonen V. (A), Seikkula E. (A2)
17:14, 1 - 3, Kaikkonen T. (G),
18:53, 1 - 4, Pulli T. (G),

Preview

Series tied 1-1. Third leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pelicans U20 won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Pelicans U20 may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Pelicans U20 could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Pelicans U20 won 15 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 79:46. (average 4:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Pelicans U20 won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 42:22. (average 4.2:2.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
2	Hameenlinna U20	10	7	0	2	1	46:22	23
6	Pelicans Lahti U20	10	7	0	0	3	37:26	21

Last Results with these Odds

Pelicans U20 - the odds 2.04 are the expected chance of winning is 45.11%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

HPK U20 - the odds 2.86 are the expected chance of winning is 32.17%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pelicans U20
Finnish SM-sarja U20
19.03.26	HPK U20 - Pelicans U20	1:3 ✺
17.03.26	Pelicans U20 - HPK U20	1:5 ✺
07.03.26	KalPa U20 - Pelicans U20	3:2 penalties ✺
06.03.26	HIFK U20 - Pelicans U20	6:3 ✺
28.02.26	Pelicans U20 - KalPa U20	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WLLLW
- HPK U20
Finnish SM-sarja U20
19.03.26	HPK U20 - Pelicans U20	1:3 ✺
17.03.26	Pelicans U20 - HPK U20	1:5 ✺
12.03.26	TPS U20 - HPK U20	3:4 ✺
11.03.26	HPK U20 - TPS U20	4:2 ✺
07.03.26	HPK U20 - HIFK U20	3:4 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-sarja U20
19.03.26	HPK U20 - Pelicans U20	1:3
17.03.26	Pelicans U20 - HPK U20	1:5
13.02.26	HPK U20 - Pelicans U20	3:2
23.01.26	Pelicans U20 - HPK U20	1:5
17.01.26	Pelicans U20 - HPK U20	2:0
17.10.25	HPK U20 - Pelicans U20	7:4
14.12.24	Pelicans U20 - HPK U20	5:1

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