Match Info

SM-sarja U20

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday


	Kärpät U20		Vaasan Sport U20

	1	X	2
	1.70	4.33	3.50
	1.45	4.80	4.00
	1.76	4.2	3.34
	1.69	4.82	3.47	Watch
	1.72	4.1	3.25
	1.72	4.33	3.51
	1.65	4.3	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.73)	4.41 ↑ (4.35)	3.51 ↑ (3.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kärpät U20
53.9%

Draw
20.4%

Vaasan Sport U20
25.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.5%

20.9%

26.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.8%

22%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kärpät U20 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Vaasan Sport U20 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kärpät U20 than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vaasan Sport U20 than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Kärpät U20 - Vaasan Sport U20 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3

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Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 0)
04:33, 1 - 0, Kylmala O. (G), Erholtz A. (A), Jurvelin L. (A2)
15:29, 2 - 0, Gussander E. (G), Karjalainen A. (A), Martinmaki K. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 2)
06:49, 2 - 1, Mourujarvi E. (G), Sjoman J. (A), Koivunen W. (A2)
12:24, 2 - 2, Uutela K. (G), Lassander J. (A), Andrey T. (A2)
3rd Period (0 - 0)
Overtime (1 - 0)
04:36, 3 - 2, Kahkonen V. (G), Apukka M. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kärpät U20 won 2.

Kärpät U20 is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Vaasan Sport U20 has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Vaasan Sport U20 could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Kärpät U20 has faced a series of away games on the road.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Kärpät U20 holding a narrow advantage.

Our forecast points to a victory for Kärpät U20 in today's match, at odds of 1.73.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Kärpät U20 has recorded 13 wins, 0 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 82:49 (averaging 4.1:2.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Kärpät U20 against this opponent, the record stands at 8 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 47:24 goals (averaging 4.7:2.4 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
7	Karpat U20	12	5	3	0	4	40:35	21
16	Vaasan Sport U20	9	1	1	1	6	29:37	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kärpät U20
Finnish SM-sarja U20
02.10.26	Kärpät U20 - Lukko U20	5:1 ✺
27.09.26	SaiPa U20 - Kärpät U20	2:5 ✺
26.09.26	KooKoo U20 - Kärpät U20	1:4 ✺
20.09.26	TPS U20 - Kärpät U20	3:4 OT ✺
19.09.26	Lukko U20 - Kärpät U20	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 WWWWL
- Vaasan Sport U20
Finnish SM-sarja U20
02.10.26	Vaasan Sport U20 - HIFK U20	2:4 ✺
27.09.26	Jokerit U20 - Vaasan Sport U20	4:4 OT ✺
26.09.26	Pelicans U20 - Vaasan Sport U20	2:5 ✺
13.09.26	Vaasan Sport U20 - HPK U20	2:3 ✺
12.09.26	Vaasan Sport U20 - Ilves U20	6:9 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-sarja U20
13.02.26	Vaasan Sport U20 - Kärpät U20	3:2 penalties
07.12.25	Vaasan Sport U20 - Kärpät U20	4:2
25.10.25	Kärpät U20 - Vaasan Sport U20	3:1
13.09.25	Kärpät U20 - Vaasan Sport U20	2:3
15.02.25	Kärpät U20 - Vaasan Sport U20	6:3
10.01.25	Kärpät U20 - Vaasan Sport U20	4:2
01.11.24	Vaasan Sport U20 - Kärpät U20	2:1 penalties

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