Match Info

Mestis

Date: 30 January 2026, Friday

Location: Trio Areena (Vantaa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+


	Kiekko-Vantaa		KeuPa

	1	X	2
	1.79	4.35	3.4	Watch
	1.8	3.67	3.25
	1.77	4.41	3.62	Watch
	1.75	4	3.3
	1.78	4.25	3.43	Watch
	1.74	4.3	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↓ (1.85)	4.16 ↑ (4.01)	3.4 ↓ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kiekko-Vantaa
51.4%

Draw
21.9%

KeuPa
26.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.3%

23.2%

26.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.3%

25.2%

28.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kiekko-Vantaa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

KeuPa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kiekko-Vantaa than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Kiekko-Vantaa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for KeuPa than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Kiekko Vantaa - KeuPa Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Kiekko-Vantaa will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
23. Auvinen S. (G)	35. Hannikainen O. (G)
5. Ulander E. (C)	29. Vuontisvaara O.
12. Arkko V.	11. Lehmus J.
94. Nordgren N. (A)	89. Linjala M.
22. Turunen R. (A)	20. Jaatinen O.
8. Saarelainen M.	23. Korjus J.
Line 2
3. Pakaslahti A.	2. Kesajarvi A.
43. Niemelainen A.	4. Heinonen O.
13. Tenhovuori N.	93. Jarvenpaa M.
25. Pitkanen K.	28. Lehtonen W.
81. Menna M.	90. Liljamo T.
Line 3
27. Rikkila H.	45. Heikkila E.
18. Kettunen E.	26. Tuupanen T. (C)
28. Tolppola V.	18. Utriainen O. (A)
45. Maansaari O.	27. Tarvainen K.
24. Fagerstrom J.	7. Dobos M. B.
Line 4
38. Hellman V.	42. Wolin A. (A)
62. Iso-Kuortti P.	9. Hokkanen R.
44. Laakso A.	17. Tohila R.
29. Tiusanen E.	12. Krook A.
Substitutes
35. Varis K. (G)	41. Pasanen J. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
2nd Period (4 - 1)
00:38, 1 - 0, Saarelainen M. (G), Turunen R. (A), Arkko V. (A2)
03:47, 2 - 0, Pitkanen K. (G), Turunen R. (A), Nordgren N. (A2)
06:13, 3 - 0, Tenhovuori N. (G), Pakaslahti A. (A), Nordgren N. (A2)
07:28, 3 - 1, Lehtonen W. (G), Jarvenpaa M. (A), Liljamo T. (A2)
18:07, 4 - 1, Fagerstrom J. (G), Ulander E. (A), Maansaari O. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 1)
02:10, 5 - 1, Tolppola V. (G), Maansaari O. (A),
15:48, 5 - 2, Wolin A. (G), Heikkila E. (A), Liljamo T. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kiekko-Vantaa won 3.

Kiekko-Vantaa is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

KeuPa has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

KeuPa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Kiekko-Vantaa could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Kiekko-Vantaa will win today's game, with odds of 1.8.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kiekko-Vantaa won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 64:65. (average 3.2:3.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Kiekko-Vantaa won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 36:20. (average 4:2.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
2	K-Vantaa	9	6	1	0	2	26:21	20
8	KeuPa	9	2	0	2	5	22:37	8

Last Results with these Odds

Kiekko-Vantaa - the odds 1.85 are the expected chance of winning is 50.25%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

KeuPa - the odds 3.5 are the expected chance of winning is 26.56%, but this team recently wins 18% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kiekko-Vantaa
Finnish Mestis
27.01.26	Kiekko-Vantaa - Joensuun Kiekko-Pojat	3:2 penalties ✺
24.01.26	Joensuun Kiekko-Pojat - Kiekko-Vantaa	4:6 ✺
23.01.26	IPK - Kiekko-Vantaa	4:7 ✺
20.01.26	Imatran Ketterä - Kiekko-Vantaa	2:3 ✺
17.01.26	Kiekko-Vantaa - RoKi	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.6 WWWWW
- KeuPa HT
Finnish Mestis
24.01.26	KeuPa - IPK	2:4 ✺
22.01.26	Joensuun Kiekko-Pojat - KeuPa	4:1 ✺
17.01.26	Hermes Kokkola - KeuPa	4:1 ✺
14.01.26	KeuPa - RoKi	3:5 ✺
13.01.26	IPK - KeuPa	6:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Mestis
04.12.25	KeuPa - Kiekko-Vantaa	4:1
14.11.25	Kiekko-Vantaa - KeuPa	4:2
22.10.25	KeuPa - Kiekko-Vantaa	1:4
22.02.25	Kiekko-Vantaa - KeuPa	4:1
06.02.25	KeuPa - Kiekko-Vantaa	3:0
15.01.25	Kiekko-Vantaa - KeuPa	4:0
30.11.24	KeuPa - Kiekko-Vantaa	4:2

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