Match Info

Mestis

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Kankaan jäähalli (Iisalmi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+


	IPK		KeuPa

	1	X	2
	1.30	5.50	6.25
	1.37	5.45	6.15
	1.33	5.48	5.77
	1.32	5.6	7.3	Watch
	1.3	5.35	5.65
	1.31	5.8	6.51	Watch
	1.31	5.2	6.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↓ (1.36)	5.48 ↓ (5.5)	6.32 ↑ (6.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.25

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

IPK
69%

Draw
16.6%

KeuPa
14.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.3%

16.9%

14.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.3%

18.2%

16%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

IPK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

KeuPa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for IPK than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with IPK that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for KeuPa than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

IPK - KeuPa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:1

#ad

Lineups

Line 1
30. Sammalniemi J. (G)	41. Pasanen J. (G)
96. Gronblom T.	18. Valtanen J.
4. Kotajarvi J.	25. Paganus T.
77. Virtanen J. (C)	20. Eloranta E.
27. Lausniemi A. (A)	83. Ketonen N.
7. Suhonen P. (A)	74. Matikainen K. (A)
Line 2
81. Paqvalin A.	45. Heikkila E.
6. Leppanen T.	42. Wolin A. (C)
28. Tolppola V.	12. Huttu E.
33. Koskela S.	72. Mutka J.
72. Ahvenlampi M.	93. Jarvenpaa M.
Line 3
56. Nissinen T.	26. Vilander V.
2. Junkkari J.	2. Kesajarvi A.
13. Halonen V.	16. Winqvist K.
26. Hattunen M.	78. Keihas R.
23. Paqvalin J.	9. Hokkanen R.
Line 4
59. Kahkonen J.	27. Tarvainen K.
9. Mykra O.	8. Krook A.
18. Tohila R.	24. Manni E.
67. Curri R.	56. Rantanen N.
Substitutes
35. Moilanen M. (G)	35. Varis K. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
2nd Period (1 - 1)
05:32, 1 - 0, Virtanen J. (G), Ahvenlampi M. (A), Kotajarvi J. (A2)
15:16, 1 - 1, Matikainen K. (G), Heikkila E. (A),
3rd Period (2 - 2)
03:02, 1 - 2, Vilander V. (G), Kesajarvi A. (A), Mutka J. (A2)
03:35, 2 - 2, Virtanen J. (G),
09:36, 3 - 2, Ahvenlampi M. (G), Tolppola V. (A),
12:35, 3 - 3, Huttu E. (G), Jarvenpaa M. (A), Mutka J. (A2)
Overtime (0 - 0)
Penalties (0 - 1)
1, Jarvenpaa M. (Penalty Shot),
1, Halonen V. (Penalty Shot),
2, Mutka J. (Penalty Shot),
2, Ahvenlampi M. (Penalty Shot),
3, Huttu E. (Penalty Shot),
3, Tolppola V. (Penalty Shot),
4, Ketonen N. (Penalty Shot),
4, Virtanen J. (Penalty Shot),
5, Hokkanen R. (Penalty Shot),
5, Hattunen M. (Penalty Shot),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, IPK won 4.

IPK is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

KeuPa has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

KeuPa may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The betting markets point to IPK as the clear and undisputed favorite.

Our forecast points to a victory for IPK in today's match, at odds of 1.35.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, IPK has recorded 14 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 71:43 (averaging 3.6:2.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for IPK against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with 31:26 goals (averaging 3.1:2.6 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
1	IPK	9	6	1	2	0	33:16	22
9	KeuPa	10	2	1	2	5	26:40	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Iisalmen Peli-Karhut
Finnish Mestis
07.10.26	Nokian Pyry - IPK	3:5 ✺
02.10.26	KeuPa - IPK	1:6 ✺
25.09.26	IPK - Kiekko-Vantaa	4:0 ✺
23.09.26	IPK - Hermes Kokkola	2:3 OT ✺
19.09.26	IPK - RoKi	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWWLW
- KeuPa HT
Finnish Mestis
08.10.26	Joensuun Kiekko-Pojat - KeuPa	3:2 ✺
02.10.26	KeuPa - IPK	1:6 ✺
01.10.26	Imatran Ketterä - KeuPa	2:5 ✺
26.09.26	KeuPa - RoKi	2:5 ✺
25.09.26	TuTo - KeuPa	3:2 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Mestis
02.10.26	KeuPa - IPK	1:6
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
21.08.26	KeuPa - IPK	2:5
Finnish Mestis
10.02.26	IPK - KeuPa	2:4
24.01.26	KeuPa - IPK	2:4
13.01.26	IPK - KeuPa	6:3
15.11.25	KeuPa - IPK	0:3
28.10.25	IPK - KeuPa	3:4 OT

IPK - KeuPa: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide