Match Info

National League - Round 36

Date: 3 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Cornèr Arena (Lugano)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Switzerland	MySports, MySports


	Lugano		Fribourg-Gottéron

	1	X	2
	2.2	4.2	2.65	Watch
	2.26	4.05	2.65
	2.2	4.06	2.75	Watch
	2.2	3.8	2.5
	2.29	4.1	2.72	Watch
	2.2	4	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↑ (2.19)	4.04 ↓ (4.16)	2.62 ↓ (2.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugano
41.7%

Draw
23%

Fribourg-Gottéron
35.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

22.5%

34.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.3%

22.2%

34.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Fribourg-Gottéron has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fribourg-Gottéron than the current prediction. (-1%)

Lugano - Fribourg Gottéron Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Fribourg-Gottéron (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
34. Schlegel N. (G)	20. Berra R. (G)
22. Alatalo S.	96. Glauser A.
25. Muller M.	77. Streule M.
17. Fazzini L.	9. Sorensen M.
21. Sanford Z.	32. Wallmark L.
14. Canonica L.	93. Dorthe J.
Line 2
26. Aebischer D.	27. Rathgeb Y.
63. Dahlstrom C.	3. Kapla M.
13. Bertaggia A.	22. Bertschy C.
7. Tanner R.	21. Borgstrom H.
10. Sekac J.	17. Biasca A.
Line 3
9. Zanetti B.	7. Jecker B.
52. Peltonen J.	12. Nemeth P.
94. Simion D.	37. Nicolet K.
97. Thurkauf C. (C)	95. De La Rose J.
16. Emanuelsson E.	73. Schmid S.
Line 4
58. Carrick C.	45. Grangier M.
11. Zanetti M.	86. Sprunger J. (C)
23. Morini G.	23. Walser S.
12. Peltonen A.	97. Marchon N.
Substitutes
37. Van Pottelberghe J. (G)	48. Hauser L. (G)
	65. Rod J.
Coaches
. Mitell T.	. Ronnberg R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 1)
03:42, Wallmark L. (2 min),
04:10, 1 - 0, Fazzini L. (G), Alatalo S. (A),
12:00, 2 - 0, Sanford Z. (G),
12:25, Alatalo S. (2 min),
13:07, 2 - 1, Kapla M. (G), Wallmark L. (A),
16:14, Walser S. (2 min),
2nd Period (1 - 1)
09:49, Nemeth P. (2 min),
11:26, Schmid S. (2 min),
15:22, 2 - 2, Marchon N. (G), Walser S. (A),
19:03, 3 - 2, Thurkauf C. (G),
3rd Period (0 - 0)
15:01, Thurkauf C. (2 min),
15:01, Streule M. (2 min),

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ National League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ National League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lugano won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Lugano may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Lugano has had a series of away games.

Recently, Fribourg-Gottéron has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lugano won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 40:62. (average 2:3.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Lugano won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 22:35. (average 2.2:3.5).

Outrights of Swiss National League Hockey for now

Fribourg: 7.2% Lugano: 4.67%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
4	Fribourg	11	4	2	2	3	38:29	18
7	Lugano	10	4	1	1	4	37:33	15

Last Results with these Odds

Lugano - the odds 2.19 are the expected chance of winning is 42.67%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Fribourg-Gottéron - the odds 2.68 are the expected chance of winning is 34.87%, but this team recently wins 55% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HC Lugano
Swiss National League Hockey
02.01.26	Biel - Lugano	3:1 ✺
23.12.25	SCL Tigers - Lugano	2:4 ✺
22.12.25	Lugano - Ajoie	6:1 ✺
20.12.25	Davos - Lugano	5:4 ✺
17.12.25	ZSC Lions - Lugano	5:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LWWLL
- HC Fribourg-Gotteron
Spengler Cup
30.12.25	Fribourg-Gottéron - Davos	1:3 ✺
28.12.25	Fribourg-Gottéron - HIFK	4:3 ✺
26.12.25	Fribourg-Gottéron - Sparta Prague	5:2 ✺
Swiss National League Hockey
23.12.25	EHC Kloten - Fribourg-Gottéron	4:3 ✺
20.12.25	Fribourg-Gottéron - ZSC Lions	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Swiss National League Hockey
20.11.25	Lugano - Fribourg-Gottéron	0:4
09.09.25	Fribourg-Gottéron - Lugano	3:2 OT
15.02.25	Fribourg-Gottéron - Lugano	2:3
05.01.25	Lugano - Fribourg-Gottéron	1:5
30.11.24	Lugano - Fribourg-Gottéron	3:5
19.10.24	Fribourg-Gottéron - Lugano	4:0
28.03.24	Fribourg-Gottéron - Lugano	4:2

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