Match Info

Champions League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 2 December 2025, Tuesday

Location: Coop Norrbotten Arena (Luleå)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	TSN+
Czech-republic	Sport 1
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Polsat Sport Fight
Slovakia	Sport 1
Sweden	Viaplay
Usa	NHL Network


	Luleå		Ilves

	1	X	2
	1.7	4.5	3.3	Watch
	1.79	4.18	3.92
	1.76	4.24	3.44
	1.75	4.2	3.3
	1.81	4.3	3.61	Watch
	1.76	4.25	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↓ (2.13)	4.28 ↑ (4.25)	3.57 ↑ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Luleå
52.5%

Draw
21.6%

Ilves
25.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.1%

22.1%

33.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.2%

22.2%

33.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luleå has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Luleå's performance.

Ilves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ilves might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luleå than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Luleå that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ilves could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Luleå - Ilves Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Luleå (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Luleå (1.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5, OT - Luleå (1.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Luleå (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH +1 - Luleå (1.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Luleå (1.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Luleå (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

#ad

Lineups

Line 1
31. Ward M. (G)	35. Armalis M. (G)
3. Allard F.	23. Johansson S. (A)
23. Sellgren J. (A)	57. Parikka J.
24. Shinnimin B.	38. Teuho-Markkola T.
91. O'Neill B. (A)	9. Jasek L.
27. Tardif B.	46. Torok M.
Line 2
82. Leskinen O.	53. Pelli A. (C)
29. Gustafsson E. (C)	21. Kucerik R.
51. Nurmi M.	72. Svejkovsky L.
96. Andreasson P.	12. Mantykivi M.
67. Omark L.	17. Ratinen S.
Line 3
11. Laaksonen O.	43. Latvala O. (A)
39. Sjalin P.	8. Tukio O.
6. Hedqvist I.	27. Laurell E.
25. Eriksson F.	92. Henman L.
86. Brome M.	22. Engberg T.
Line 4
8. Hakansson W.	6. Soini S.
9. Liedes H.	5. Niskanen A.
13. Koivistoinen E.	33. Frolo J.
20. Juustovaara Karlsson C.	18. Mottard P.
	25. Heikkinen I.
Substitutes
15. Granberg D.	39. Pavlat D. (G)
34. Lassinantti J. (G)
Coaches
. Berglund T.	. Niemela T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 0)
04:42, 1 - 0, Shinnimin B. (G), O'Neill B. (A), Sjalin P. (A2)
09:58, Liedes H. (2 min),
13:17, Parikka J. (2 min),
14:44, 2 - 0, Nurmi M. (G), Brome M. (A), Andreasson P. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 0)
13:25, Nurmi M. (2 min),
3rd Period (1 - 2)
02:27, 2 - 1, Laurell E. (G), Engberg T. (A), Johansson S. (A2)
04:40, 3 - 1, Brome M. (G), Hedqvist I. (A), Eriksson F. (A2)
06:57, Latvala O. (2 min),
10:19, 3 - 2, Teuho-Markkola T. (G), Mantykivi M. (A), Ratinen S. (A2)
13:36, Kucerik R. (2 min),

Preview

1st leg.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Ilves may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Luleå has had a series of away games.

Luleå could have a small edge in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Luleå - the odds 2.13 are the expected chance of winning is 44.12%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Ilves - the odds 2.78 are the expected chance of winning is 33.79%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luleå HF
SHL
29.11.25	Timrå - Luleå	3:2 ✺
27.11.25	Luleå - Leksand	2:3 penalties ✺
22.11.25	HV71 - Luleå	1:2 ✺
20.11.25	Örebro - Luleå	0:3 ✺
Champions League Ice Hockey
18.11.25	Kometa Brno - Luleå	5:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LLWWL
- Ilves hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
28.11.25	Tappara - Ilves	3:0 ✺
25.11.25	Ilves - Pelicans	3:0 ✺
22.11.25	Kiekko-Espoo - Ilves	4:3 OT ✺
Champions League Ice Hockey
19.11.25	Ilves - Fischtown Pinguins Bremerhaven	5:2 ✺
Finnish SM-liiga
15.11.25	HPK - Ilves	2:3 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LWLWW

Upcoming Matches