Match Info

EUROPE: Alps Hockey League - Round 22

Date: 7 December 2024, Saturday

Location: Meranarena (Merano)


	Merano Junior		Celje

	1	X	2
	2.2	4.15	2.4	Watch
	2.19	4.25	2.49
	2.21	4.41	2.49	Watch
	2.2	4.2	2.45
	2.19	4.2	2.47
	2.2	4.15	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↓ (2.26)	4.23 ↑ (4.1)	2.45 ↑ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.50

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Merano Junior
41.4%

Draw
21.5%

Celje
37.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.1%

22.1%

37.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

21.6%

38.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Merano Junior has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Celje has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Merano Junior than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celje than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Merano Junior - Celje Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3

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Lineups

Line 1
1. Rigoni R. (G)	41. Heiskanen A. (G)
61. Madsen P.	43. Sillanpaa J.
27. Rein N.	17. Logar M.
7. Pietroniro M.	29. Vodlan L.
9. Tomasini P.	36. Tsarkovskyi D.
13. Gellon D.	83. Kumanovic L.
Line 2
8. Ishida R.	21. Bernard J.
5. Golser A.	3. Sirovnik N.
89. Skalde S.	13. Bukovec M.
84. Nakajima T.	2. Povse J.
47. Pietroniro C.	14. Zezelj G.
Line 3
19. Beber P.	11. Grahut N.
64. Carissimi E.	19. Dolzan D.
26. Fuchs J.	33. Sotlar J.
75. Trivellato D.	18. Jakupovic A.
15. Mandruzzato G.	16. Mintautiskis M.
Line 4
93. Kuppelwieser P.
3. Marinovich M.
98. Castlunger M.
95. Pisetta T.
Substitutes
33. Calvi M. (G)	30. Gajsek J. (G)
	22. Panasenko B.
	15. Sojer M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 2)
06:05, 0 - 1, Bernard J. (G), Zezelj G. (A), Povse J. (A2)
17:14, 0 - 2, Jakupovic A. (G),
2nd Period (2 - 0)
09:00, 1 - 2, Gellon D. (G),
17:20, 2 - 2, Pietroniro M. (G), Ishida R. (A), Nakajima T. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 0)
17:38, 3 - 2, Nakajima T. (G), Gellon D. (A), Pietroniro M. (A2)

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Merano won 5.

Merano is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Celje is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Merano could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Celje have a series of home games.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Merano won 5 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 33:23 (average 4.7:3.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Merano won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 10:4 (average 5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Merano Junior
Alps Hockey League
05.12.24	Unterland Cavaliers - Merano Junior	4:3 OT ✺
30.11.24	Merano Junior - Vipiteno	3:6 ✺
28.11.24	Merano Junior - Tigers Bregenzerwald	1:3 ✺
23.11.24	Ritten-Renon - Merano Junior	5:3 ✺
21.11.24	Merano Junior - Red Bull Salzburg 2	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLLLW
- HK Celje
Alps Hockey League
05.12.24	Celje - Sisak	1:5 ✺
30.11.24	Celje - Cortina	4:3 ✺
Slovenian Hokejska Liga
28.11.24	Acroni Jesenice - Celje	1:2 ✺
Alps Hockey League
24.11.24	Celje - Cortina	4:2 ✺
23.11.24	Celje - Gherdëina	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.6 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Alps Hockey League
27.10.24	Celje - Merano Junior	3:5
03.02.24	Celje - Merano Junior	3:6
20.01.24	Merano Junior - Celje	5:4
04.11.23	Celje - Merano Junior	1:4
28.09.23	Merano Junior - Celje	5:0
23.02.14	Celje - Merano Junior	8:5
02.11.13	Celje - Merano Junior	4:3

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