Match Info

VHL

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Dvorets Sporta Arktika (Norilsk)


	Norilsk		Metallurg Novokuznetsk

	1	X	2
	3.49	3.64	1.96
	3.35	3.5	1.9
	3.1	4.05	2.01	Watch
	3.05	3.85	1.91
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.25 ↓ (4.13)	3.76 ↓ (4.12)	1.95 ↑ (1.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.75

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Norilsk
28.3%

Draw
24.4%

Metallurg Novokuznetsk
47.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.2%

22.3%

55.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.6%

23.7%

52.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Norilsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Norilsk's performance.

Metallurg Novokuznetsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Metallurg Novokuznetsk might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Norilsk than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Metallurg Novokuznetsk than the current prediction. (+5%)

Norilsk - Metallurg Novokuznetsk Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
98. Gluschenko R. (G)	1. Lozebnikov D. (G)
4. Shalapov Y. (A)	61. Vafin K.
11. Steklov K.	89. Teryayev S. (A)
17. Golodnyuk S.	28. Ospanov R.
36. Zlodeyev D.	15. Utkin D.
8. Avramenko I.	59. Perevalov A.
Line 2
39. Bolshakov M.	8. Naumov V.
74. Perelyayev S.	67. Afanasyev M. (A)
89. Yemets I.	18. Serdyuk Y.
10. Lipanov A.	40. Apalkov D. (C)
56. Mokin N. (C)	10. Sheshin D.
Line 3
43. Sinitsky I.	4. Churkin V.
5. Krasnov A.	47. Medvedev P.
71. Rasseikin M.	41. Aliyev R.
87. Gorbunov Y.	17. Podkorytov A.
23. Klimovich Y.	16. Manukyan A.
Line 4
22. Rodionov A.	58. Sherstnev I.
86. Kirileichenko M.	9. Belov D.
28. Shevchenko A. (A)	29. Vasilkov A.
69. Filin F.	71. Grzheletsky M.
	87. Gerasimov S.
Substitutes
77. Guskov Y. (G)	20. Vinogradov Z. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 1)
14:40, 0 - 1, Sheshin D. (G),
2nd Period (0 - 2)
08:51, 0 - 2, Utkin D. (G), Ospanov R. (A), Medvedev P. (A2)
17:19, 0 - 3, Perevalov A. (G), Gerasimov S. (A), Churkin V. (A2)
3rd Period (0 - 0)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Norilsk won 0.

Recent performances by Norilsk have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Metallurg N is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Metallurg N may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Metallurg N has had a series of away games.

In this match, Metallurg N is the team to beat.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Norilsk won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:22. (average 2:3.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Norilsk won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:11. (average 1.8:2.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
4	HC Norilsk	14	7	1	2	4	32:32	18
10	Metallurg Novokuznetsk	12	6	0	3	3	22:14	15

Last Results with these Odds

Metallurg Novokuznetsk - the odds 1.66 are the expected chance of winning is 55.47%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HK Norilsk
VHL
03.09.26	Norilsk - Sokol Krasnoyarsk	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
27.08.26	Sokol Krasnoyarsk - Norilsk	3:0 ✺
26.08.26	Dynamo-Altay - Norilsk	2:3 penalties ✺
22.08.26	Norilsk - Lida	2:4 ✺
15.08.26	Norilsk - Shakhtyor Soligorsk	3:2 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLWLW
- Metallurg Novokuznetsk
VHL
02.09.26	Yugra Khanty-Mansiysk - Metallurg Novokuznetsk	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
28.08.26	Gornyak-UGMK - Metallurg Novokuznetsk	2:5 ✺
26.08.26	Omskie Krylia - Metallurg Novokuznetsk	2:1 ✺
25.08.26	Dinamo St. Petersburg - Metallurg Novokuznetsk	2:5 ✺
24.08.26	Toros Neftekamsk - Metallurg Novokuznetsk	2:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

VHL
16.03.26	Metallurg Novokuznetsk - Norilsk	4:1
06.09.25	Norilsk - Metallurg Novokuznetsk	4:5
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
25.08.25	Norilsk - Metallurg Novokuznetsk	1:3
VHL
15.12.24	Norilsk - Metallurg Novokuznetsk	0:2
02.12.24	Metallurg Novokuznetsk - Norilsk	5:3
14.01.24	Norilsk - Metallurg Novokuznetsk	2:1 penalties
09.10.23	Metallurg Novokuznetsk - Norilsk	2:3

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