Match Info

VHL

Date: 2 October 2025, Thursday

Location: Dvorets Sporta Arktika (Norilsk)


	Norilsk		Zvezda Moscow

	1	X	2
	2.29	3.86	2.71
	2.35	3.9	2.55	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↑ (2.26)	3.88 ↓ (4.03)	2.63 ↓ (2.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Norilsk
40.3%

Draw
24.1%

Zvezda Moscow
35.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.5%

23.2%

35.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

23.9%

34.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Norilsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Zvezda Moscow has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Norilsk than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zvezda Moscow than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Norilsk - Zvezda Moscow Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
45. Nikitin V. (G)	45. Gluschenko R. (G)
18. Alexeyev D.	94. Lypkan M.
43. Ugolnikov A. (A)	8. Bobryashov N. (C)
56. Mokin N. (A)	39. Kuzminov Y.
86. Melnichenko K.	98. Pankratov S. (A)
69. Skorikov D.	19. Prokhorov A. (A)
Line 2
72. Korchemkin D.	18. Makarov N.
98. Abdeyev I.	32. Rogov I.
97. Leontyev A.	97. Churkin A.
58. Yadykin Y.	75. Averochkin M.
55. Alkhimov S.	87. Yapparov Y.
Line 3
64. Minayev Y.	80. Barabosha A.
28. Makeyev N.	6. Gordeyev M.
26. Bain M.	90. Pautov I.
13. Kaletnik V. (C)	62. Shalyshkin N.
63. Yemets I.	77. Solovyov Y.
Line 4
21. Kolomiytsev I.	82. Smyshlyayev P.
71. Golodnyuk S.	96. Dryagilev A.
89. Gorbunov D.	23. Khulapov D.
93. Korenev I.	88. Almazov N.
	79. Dronyk V.
Substitutes
88. Smirnov A. (G)	57. Dubrovin K. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 0)
16:05, 1 - 0, Korenev I. (G), Ugolnikov A. (A), Kaletnik V. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 1)
03:20, 1 - 1, Solovyov Y. (G), Rogov I. (A), Dronyk V. (A2)
3rd Period (0 - 1)
09:40, 1 - 2, Prokhorov A. (G), Solovyov Y. (A),

Preview

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Zvezda Moscow may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Norilsk has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Norilsk won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:16. (average 2.8:3.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Norilsk won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:6. (average 3.5:3).

Last Results with these Odds

Norilsk - the odds 2.26 are the expected chance of winning is 41.54%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Zvezda Moscow - the odds 2.66 are the expected chance of winning is 35.22%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HK Norilsk
VHL
27.09.25	Yugra Khanty-Mansiysk - Norilsk	2:4 ✺
25.09.25	Rubin Tyumen - Norilsk	3:2 ✺
23.09.25	Zauralie Kurgan - Norilsk	0:1 ✺
21.09.25	Omskie Krylia - Norilsk	4:2 ✺
16.09.25	Norilsk - Tambov	2:3 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WLWLL
- Zvezda Moscow
VHL
27.09.25	Zvezda Moscow - SKA-VMF	1:0 ✺
25.09.25	Zvezda Moscow - Dinamo St. Petersburg	1:2 ✺
19.09.25	Neftyanik Almetyevsk - Zvezda Moscow	7:1 ✺
17.09.25	Chelny - Zvezda Moscow	0:2 ✺
15.09.25	Bars Kazan - Zvezda Moscow	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

VHL
27.02.25	Zvezda Moscow - Norilsk	5:4 penalties
23.09.24	Norilsk - Zvezda Moscow	2:4
23.01.24	Zvezda Moscow - Norilsk	5:1
28.09.23	Norilsk - Zvezda Moscow	5:2
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
16.08.23	Zvezda Moscow - Norilsk	0:2

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