Match Info

VHL

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Dvorets Sporta Arktika (Norilsk)


	Norilsk		Khimik

	1	X	2
	2.52	3.94	2.42
	2.49	4.1	2.35	Watch
	2.44	3.95	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↓ (2.76)	4 ↑ (3.7)	2.35 ↑ (2.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Norilsk
37.3%

Draw
23.2%

Khimik
39.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.9%

25.3%

40.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.4%

24.9%

41.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Norilsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Khimik has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Norilsk than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Khimik than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Norilsk - Khimik Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
45. Nikitin V. (G)	31. Volokhin Y. (G)
51. Popov O.	43. Krasnichuk A.
28. Makeyev N.	4. Sokolov N. (C)
71. Golodnyuk S.	92. Yarovoi S.
89. Gorbunov D.	8. Krovyakov M. (A)
93. Korenev I.	88. Vorobyov I.
Line 2
72. Korchemkin D.	13. Gavrilov I.
98. Abdeyev I.	37. Naumov M.
56. Mokin N. (A)	36. Lukin K.
11. Shevchenko V.	65. Mansurov D. (A)
63. Yemets I.	41. Solovyov D.
Line 3
18. Alexeyev D.	9. Frolov S.
43. Ugolnikov A. (A)	26. Paramonov A.
26. Bain M.	23. Ovchinnikov G.
13. Kaletnik V. (C)	6. Ryabov I.
69. Skorikov D.	2. Varyushkin Y.
Line 4
79. Chebykin Y.	3. Ivanov D.
97. Leontyev A.	93. Matveyev V.
86. Melnichenko K.	83. Karpov Y.
55. Alkhimov S.	44. Khrapov F.
	55. Kovalishin M.
Substitutes
88. Smirnov A. (G)	1. Kanayev P. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 1)
16:16, 0 - 1, Yarovoi S. (G), Vorobyov I. (A), Krovyakov M. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 2)
02:55, 0 - 2, Vorobyov I. (G), Ivanov D. (A),
06:23, 0 - 3, Ovchinnikov G. (G), Krasnichuk A. (A), Ryabov I. (A2)
3rd Period (0 - 1)
16:11, 0 - 4, Ryabov I. (G), Varyushkin Y. (A),

Preview

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Norilsk may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Norilsk has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Norilsk won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:19. (average 2.4:3.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Norilsk won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:7. (average 2:2.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Khimik - the odds 2.29 are the expected chance of winning is 40.84%, but this team recently wins 31% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HK Norilsk
VHL
02.10.25	Norilsk - Zvezda Moscow	1:2 ✺
27.09.25	Yugra Khanty-Mansiysk - Norilsk	2:4 ✺
25.09.25	Rubin Tyumen - Norilsk	3:2 ✺
23.09.25	Zauralie Kurgan - Norilsk	0:1 ✺
21.09.25	Omskie Krylia - Norilsk	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 LWLWL
- MHC Khimik
VHL
29.09.25	Khimik - SKA-VMF	1:2 ✺
27.09.25	Khimik - Dinamo St. Petersburg	2:1 ✺
21.09.25	Neftyanik Almetyevsk - Khimik	4:2 ✺
19.09.25	Chelny - Khimik	3:7 ✺
17.09.25	Bars Kazan - Khimik	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly Ice Hockey
16.08.25	Norilsk - Khimik	3:4 OT
VHL
27.01.25	Norilsk - Khimik	2:1
25.10.24	Khimik - Norilsk	6:4
29.12.23	Khimik - Norilsk	6:2
13.10.23	Norilsk - Khimik	1:2

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