The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Gornyak-UGMK 31.8%
Draw 25.4%
Metallurg Novokuznetsk 42.8%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
32.3%
24.7%
43%
Our Initial ML Estimation
33.5%
25.6%
40.9%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Gornyak-UGMK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)
Metallurg Novokuznetsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gornyak-UGMK than the current prediction. (+1.7%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Metallurg Novokuznetsk than the current prediction. (-1.9%)
Gornyak UGMK - Metallurg Novokuznetsk Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3
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Lineups
Line 1
33. Kapustin K. (G)
1. Lozebnikov D. (G)
27. Sitnikov V.
12. Kryukov T.
62. Shchuchinov A.
89. Teryayev S. (C)
91. Makeyev A. (C)
33. Shablovsky Z.
13. Zaytsev O. (A)
40. Apalkov D. (A)
52. Ovchinnikov I. (A)
29. Vasilkov A.
Line 2
90. Nekrasov N.
9. Belov D.
26. Ishimnikov N.
67. Afanasyev M. (A)
96. Miller N.
18. Serdyuk Y.
14. Makhrin M.
17. Podkorytov A.
44. Lukhovskoy N.
10. Sheshin D.
Line 3
72. Trofimov Y.
47. Medvedev P.
23. Gamzakov M.
4. Churkin V.
71. Velikov M.
41. Aliyev R.
70. Alexeyev Y.
71. Grzheletsky M.
80. Demidovich V.
87. Gerasimov S.
Line 4
95. Dumchenko N.
86. Doroshenko M.
22. Molodtsov D.
97. Galimov E.
63. Isayev D.
81. Spiridonov Y.
18. Sushchev V.
28. Ospanov R.
32. Borisov S.
Substitutes
97. Anufriev I.
59. Perevalov A.
35. Tulinov N. (G)
20. Vinogradov Z. (G)
Key Events of the Match
1st Period (0 - 1)
05:26, 0 - 1, Ospanov R. (G), Galimov E. (A),
2nd Period (2 - 1)
00:40, 0 - 2, Sheshin D. (G), Serdyuk Y. (A),
01:40, 1 - 2, Sushchev V. (G), Dumchenko N. (A), Molodtsov D. (A2)
16:08, 2 - 2, Lukhovskoy N. (G), Miller N. (A),
3rd Period (1 - 1)
15:18, 2 - 3, Spiridonov Y. (G), Galimov E. (A), Belov D. (A2)
15:45, 3 - 3, Velikov M. (G), Demidovich V. (A), Alexeyev Y. (A2)
Overtime (0 - 0)
Penalties (2 - 3)
1, Velikov M. (Penalty Shot),
1, Apalkov D. (Penalty Shot),
2, Borisov S. (Penalty Shot),
2, Aliyev R. (Penalty Shot),
3, Miller N. (Penalty Shot),
3, Grzheletsky M. (Penalty Shot),
4, Alexeyev Y. (Penalty Shot),
4, Gerasimov S. (Penalty Shot),
5, Zaytsev O. (Penalty Shot),
5, Podkorytov A. (Penalty Shot),
6, Apalkov D. (Penalty Shot),
6, Miller N. (Penalty Shot),
7, Podkorytov A. (Penalty Shot),
7, Makhrin M. (Penalty Shot),
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gornyak-UGMK won 1.
Gornyak-UGMK is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Metallurg N has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Gornyak-UGMK could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Metallurg N holding a narrow advantage.
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Gornyak-UGMK has recorded 3 wins, 0 draws, and 17 losses, with a goal aggregate of 36:67 (averaging 1.8:3.4 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Gornyak-UGMK against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 8 losses, with 21:35 goals (averaging 2.1:3.5 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
WO
LO
L
Pts
6
Metallurg Novokuznetsk
20
9
3
3
5
41:26
27
Last Results with these Odds
Gornyak-UGMK - the odds 2.9 are the expected chance of winning is 32.33%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.
Metallurg Novokuznetsk - the odds 2.18 are the expected chance of winning is 43%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.
Watch
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Kapustin K. (G) 
Demidovich V. 
Ospanov R. 
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