Match Info

NHL

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday

Location: PPG Paints Arena (Pittsburgh, PA)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	V Sport Live 1
Germany	NHL.tv
Mexico	Disney+
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Sweden	Viaplay
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN USA, ESPN+, MSG Sportsnet, MSG, NESN
Venezuela	Disney+
World	NHL.tv


	Pittsburgh Penguins		Dallas Stars

	1	X	2
	3.45	4.25	1.83	Watch
	3.30	4.20	1.87
	3.4	4.3	1.92
	3.41	4.31	1.9
	3.41	4.41	1.88	Watch
	3.35	4.25	1.89
	3.35	4.46	1.97
	3.15	4.3	1.89
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.35 ↑ (2.63)	4.31 ↑ (4.16)	1.89 ↓ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pittsburgh Penguins
28.2%

Draw
21.9%

Dallas Stars
49.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.9%

22.7%

41.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

24.3%

38.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pittsburgh Penguins has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Pittsburgh Penguins's form might have worsened.

Dallas Stars has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Dallas Stars's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pittsburgh Penguins than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pittsburgh Penguins, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dallas Stars than the current prediction. (-11.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Dallas Stars, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	20%	60%

Pittsburgh Penguins - Dallas Stars Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Pittsburgh will win (votes: 2 - 20%). Dallas will win (votes: 6 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Dallas: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Dallas (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:4

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Lineups

Line 1
37. Silovs A. (G)	29. Oettinger J. (G)
65. Karlsson E.	4. Heiskanen M. (A)
72. Carlile D.	23. Lindell E.
17. Rust B.	96. Rantanen M.
87. Crosby S. (C)	53. Johnston W.
67. Rakell R.	18. Steel S.
Line 2
6. Korczak K.	5. Lundkvist N.
49. Girard S.	55. Harley T.
71. Malkin E. (A)	14. Benn Ja. (C)
18. Novak T.	24. Hintz R.
59. Chinakhov Y.	21. Robertson J.
Line 3
58. Letang K. (A)	57. Myers T.
57. Van Riemsdyk T.	6. Bichsel L.
41. Koivunen V.	91. Seguin T. (A)
81. Kindel B.	25. Hyry A.
22. Lapierre H.	49. Hryckowian J.
Line 4
14. Robertson N.	15. Blackwell C.
46. Lizotte B.	12. Faksa R.
19. Dewar C.	10. Back O.
Substitutes
1. Murashov S. (G)	1. DeSmith C. (G)
Coaches
. Muse D.	. Gulutzan G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
10:21, Carlile D. (2 min),
14:35, Rantanen M. (2 min),
17:28, Rantanen M. (2 min),
2nd Period (0 - 0)
10:56, Heiskanen M. (2 min),
18:41, Lundkvist N. (2 min),
3rd Period (1 - 1)
01:57, 1 - 0, Dewar C. (G), Lizotte B. (A),
03:25, Lapierre H. (2 min),
13:30, Bichsel L. (2 min),
14:21, Rakell R. (2 min),
19:30, 1 - 1, Seguin T. (G), Robertson J. (A), Heiskanen M. (A2)
Overtime (0 - 0)
Penalties (3 - 2)
1, Kindel B. (Penalty Shot),
1, Robertson J. (Penalty Shot),
2, Crosby S. (Penalty Shot),
2, Seguin T. (Penalty Shot),
3, Chinakhov Y. (Penalty Shot),
3, Johnston W. (Penalty Shot),
4, Rakell R. (Penalty Shot),
4, Rantanen M. (Penalty Shot),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pittsburgh won 1.

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Dallas could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Dallas holding a narrow advantage.

Confirmed absences for Pittsburgh: Brazeau J. (Lower-Body Injury) Graves R. (Knee Injury) Kuzmenko A. (Personal Reasons).

Confirmed absences for Dallas: Duchene M. (Lower-Body Injury) Kiviranta J. (Lower-Body Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Pittsburgh has recorded 8 wins, 0 draws, and 12 losses, with a goal aggregate of 51:58 (averaging 2.6:2.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Pittsburgh against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, with 27:30 goals (averaging 2.7:3 per game).

Outrights of NHL for now

Dallas Stars: 4.52% Pittsburgh Penguins: 1.18%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pittsburgh Penguins
NHL
09.10.26	Columbus Blue Jackets - Pittsburgh Penguins	3:2 penalties ✺
07.10.26	Washington Capitals - Pittsburgh Penguins	5:3 ✺
05.10.26	Pittsburgh Penguins - Winnipeg Jets	2:3 ✺
03.10.26	Pittsburgh Penguins - Montreal Canadiens	6:5 OT ✺
30.09.26	Philadelphia Flyers - Pittsburgh Penguins	0:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LLLWW
- Dallas Stars
NHL
08.10.26	Buffalo Sabres - Dallas Stars	0:4 ✺
05.10.26	Dallas Stars - San Jose Sharks	5:0 ✺
03.10.26	Nashville Predators - Dallas Stars	2:1 ✺
02.10.26	Dallas Stars - St. Louis Blues	0:4 ✺
25.09.26	Minnesota Wild - Dallas Stars	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

NHL
28.03.26	Pittsburgh Penguins - Dallas Stars	3:6
07.12.25	Dallas Stars - Pittsburgh Penguins	3:2 penalties
05.04.25	Dallas Stars - Pittsburgh Penguins	3:5
11.11.24	Pittsburgh Penguins - Dallas Stars	1:7
22.03.24	Dallas Stars - Pittsburgh Penguins	4:2
24.10.23	Pittsburgh Penguins - Dallas Stars	1:4
23.03.23	Dallas Stars - Pittsburgh Penguins	3:2

Pittsburgh Penguins - Dallas Stars: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide