The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Rochester Americans 40.9%
Draw 22%
Hershey Bears 37%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
43.1%
20.5%
36.4%
Our Initial ML Estimation
45.3%
21.6%
33.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Rochester Americans has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)
Hershey Bears has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rochester Americans than the current prediction. (+4.4%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hershey Bears than the current prediction. (-3.9%)
Rochester Americans - Hershey Bears Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
31. Villalta M. (G)
40. Petersen C. (G)
73. Costantini M.
55. Anderson J.
12. Fiddler-Schultz R. (A)
7. Belpedio L. (C)
11. Funk Z.
43. Bitten S.
55. Geertsen M.
22. Brodzinski J.
65. Hayes Z.
5. Chesley R.
82. Jones C.
20. Cristall A.
16. Kuntar T.
19. Cruikshank G.
36. Laaouan N.
21. Dunne J. (A)
2. McCarthy G.
48. Gucciardi D.
28. McDonough A.
4. Holl J.
72. Meyer C. (A)
15. Lakovic L.
57. Mrtka R.
26. MacDonald J.
63. Peca M. (C)
13. Mateiko E.
14. Polin J.
34. Muggli L.
59. Richard J.
12. Niederbach T.
19. Slaggert G.
36. Sikora P.
40. Valente L.
11. Smallman S. (A)
45. Warren B.
44. Trineyev B.
Substitutes
35. Boyko T. (G)
1. Bjorklund G. (G)
Key Events of the Match
1st Period (0 - 1)
13:54, 0 - 1, Lakovic L. (G), Belpedio L. (A), Smallman S. (A2)
2nd Period (2 - 2)
02:32, 0 - 2, Sikora P. (G), Lakovic L. (A), Anderson J. (A2)
02:56, 0 - 3, Belpedio L. (G), Sikora P. (A), Lakovic L. (A2)
15:27, 1 - 3, McDonough A. (G), Warren B. (A),
16:51, 2 - 3, Meyer C. (G), Jones C. (A), Peca M. (A2)
3rd Period (0 - 0)
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rochester won 1.
In recent outings, Rochester has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
Hershey shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 4 wins).
Hershey could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
Recently, Rochester has faced a series of away games on the road.
Recently, Hershey has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.
The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Rochester has recorded 8 wins, 0 draws, and 12 losses, with a goal aggregate of 55:54 (averaging 2.8:2.7 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Rochester against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, with 30:27 goals (averaging 3:2.7 per game).
Outrights of AHL for now
Hershey Bears: 3.39% Rochester Americans: 3.39%
Last Results with these Odds
Rochester Americans - the odds 2.17 are the expected chance of winning is 43.08%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.
Hershey Bears - the odds 2.57 are the expected chance of winning is 36.37%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.
Watch
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Villalta M. (G) 
Petersen C. (G) 
Mrtka R. 
Mateiko E. 
Muggli L. 
Niederbach T. 
Trineyev B. 
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