Match Info

Liiga - Play Offs - 3rd place

Date: 30 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Kisapuisto (Lappeenranta)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+


	SaiPa		Ilves

	1	X	2
	2.25	4.2	2.6
	2.35	4	2.54
	2.38	3.85	2.7	Watch
	2.38	3.7	2.68
	2.36	3.77	2.67
	2.3	3.8	2.5
	2.28	4.25	2.55	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↓ (2.39)	3.94 ↑ (3.77)	2.61 ↑ (2.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SaiPa
40.2%

Draw
23.8%

Ilves
36%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.8%

24.6%

36.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.1%

27.2%

40.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SaiPa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Ilves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for SaiPa than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with SaiPa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

SaiPa - Ilves Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ilves (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
30. Piiroinen K. (G)	39. Pavlat D. (G)
50. Salminen S. (A)	23. Johansson S.
26. Kivihalme T.	57. Parikka J.
62. Tauslahti M.	17. Ratinen S.
15. Salomaki M.	12. Mantykivi M.
25. Kuusla E.	92. Henman L.
Line 2
14. Kramer B.	53. Pelli A.
55. Trejbal O.	28. Nyberg J.
51. Kalapudas A.	29. Looke J.
82. Nikkanen H.	9. Jasek L.
10. Kivenmaki O.	15. Kos O.
Line 3
6. Airola S.	43. Latvala O.
7. Niinisaari S. (C)	5. Niskanen A.
75. Siikanen P.	89. Quenneville P.
12. Bau S.	46. Torok M.
70. Naukkarinen J.	48. Klingberg C. (A)
Line 4
22. Aho K.	6. Soini S.
81. Klintrup E.	34. Palola O.
21. Appelgren N. (A)	86. Nattinen J. (C)
18. Heikkila J.	20. Bjorkqvist K.
Substitutes
33. Karhunen T. (G)	40. Armalis M. (G)
Coaches
. Helminen R.	. Niemela T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 1)
01:09, 1 - 0, Kuusla E. (G), Tauslahti M. (A), Salomaki M. (A2)
06:15, Jasek L. (2 min),
08:57, 1 - 1, Parikka J. (G), Torok M. (A),
2nd Period (3 - 0)
01:53, Quenneville P. (2 min),
09:03, Quenneville P. (2 min),
11:05, 2 - 1, Nikkanen H. (G), Siikanen P. (A), Airola S. (A2)
14:00, 3 - 1, Bau S. (G), Naukkarinen J. (A), Kramer B. (A2)
16:39, 4 - 1, Kuusla E. (G),
3rd Period (3 - 1)
00:01, Pavlat D. ↓, Armalis M. ↑,
01:03, Salomaki M. (2 min),
02:12, 4 - 2, Torok M. (G), Looke J. (A), Johansson S. (A2)
06:03, 5 - 2, Kalapudas A. (G), Kramer B. (A), Nikkanen H. (A2)
08:42, 6 - 2, Appelgren N. (G), Trejbal O. (A), Klintrup E. (A2)
10:18, Torok M. (2 min),
14:34, 7 - 2, Tauslahti M. (G), Kuusla E. (A), Salminen S. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, SaiPa won 1.

SaiPa has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ilves has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, SaiPa won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 45:76. (average 2.3:3.8).

Including home matches between the teams, SaiPa won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 29:36. (average 2.9:3.6).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

Saipa: 3.72%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
1	Ilves	12	8	1	0	3	36:24	26

Last Results with these Odds

SaiPa - the odds 2.39 are the expected chance of winning is 38.83%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SaiPa hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
27.04.26	SaiPa - KooKoo	2:3 OT ✺
25.04.26	KooKoo - SaiPa	4:0 ✺
24.04.26	SaiPa - KooKoo	3:0 ✺
21.04.26	KooKoo - SaiPa	2:4 ✺
18.04.26	SaiPa - KooKoo	3:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LLWWL
- Ilves hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
27.04.26	Ilves - Tappara	3:4 ✺
25.04.26	Tappara - Ilves	2:1 OT ✺
23.04.26	Ilves - Tappara	1:5 ✺
21.04.26	Tappara - Ilves	3:2 ✺
19.04.26	Ilves - Tappara	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
17.03.26	Ilves - SaiPa	4:1
31.10.25	SaiPa - Ilves	5:2
01.03.25	SaiPa - Ilves	3:6
09.12.24	Ilves - SaiPa	2:1 OT
23.02.24	Ilves - SaiPa	5:2
28.12.23	SaiPa - Ilves	0:3
18.11.23	Ilves - SaiPa	5:2

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