Match Info

KHL

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Ice Palace (Cherepovets)


	Severstal Cherepovets		Shanghai Dragons

	1	X	2
	1.94	3.71	3.48
	1.92	3.65	3.40
	2.04	4.22	3.12	Watch
	1.99	3.95	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↓ (2.24)	3.88 ↓ (4.28)	3.26 ↑ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.50

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Severstal Cherepovets
47.3%

Draw
24%

Shanghai Dragons
28.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.3%

22.7%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.5%

21.7%

35.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Severstal Cherepovets has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Shanghai Dragons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Shanghai Dragons might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Severstal Cherepovets than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Severstal Cherepovets that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shanghai Dragons than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Shanghai Dragons could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	25%	50%

Severstal Cherepovets - Shanghai Dragons Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Severstal will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Shanghai will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Shanghai (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
29. Samoilov A. (G)	30. Khomchenko P. (G)
32. Gregoire T.	2. Ottenbreit T.
8. Kaldis Y.	6. Addison C.
88. Dumbadze D. (A)	14. Sutter R.
66. Podshivalov I.	17. Solovyov Y.
18. Veryayev D.	21. Murray B.
Line 2
75. Davydov T.	4. Cicek N.
52. Chaly G.	27. Menell B.
71. Popugayev N. A.	7. Petan N. (A)
17. Abrosimov R. (C)	22. Barulin V.
11. Yan D. (A)	23. Jaskin D. (C)
Line 3
54. Churkin A.	19. Malorosiyanov D.
2. Grudinin V.	38. Naumenkov M. (A)
51. Kvochko I.	9. Chen D.
12. Skorenov A.	37. Sucese N.
6. Ivantsov I.	59. Alexandrov N.
Line 4
77. Fomin M.	53. Kotlyarevsky M.
70. Graf Y.	54. Smith G.
42. Tankov K.	63. Mingachyov T.
37. Reingardt I.
Substitutes
83. Filimonov Y. (G)	31. Buteyets V. (G)
30. Skotnikov V. (G)	35. Miftakhov A. (G)
Coaches
. Kozyrev A.	. Love M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 0)
01:59, Naumenkov M. (2 min),
06:01, 1 - 0, Skorenov A. (G), Gregoire T. (A), Ivantsov I. (A2)
11:10, Grudinin V. (2 min),
2nd Period (0 - 1)
04:34, Ivantsov I. (2 min),
06:19, 1 - 1, Sutter R. (G), Alexandrov N. (A), Chen D. (A2)
17:41, Gregoire T. (2 min),
3rd Period (0 - 0)
01:44, Naumenkov M. (2 min),
Overtime (1 - 0)
03:09, 2 - 1, Kvochko I. (G), Kaldis Y. (A), Yan D. (A2)

Preview

A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 8th in the Promotion - KHL Playoffs - 1/8 - finals and 5th in the Promotion - KHL Playoffs - 1/8 - finals).

In recent outings, Severstal has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Shanghai is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Severstal could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Shanghai has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

Severstal is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Severstal has recorded 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 14:11 (averaging 3.5:2.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Severstal against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 7:7 goals (averaging 3.5:3.5 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Severstal Cherepovets - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 43.3%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Severstal Cherepovets
KHL
01.10.26	Severstal Cherepovets - Admiral Vladivostok	3:4 penalties ✺
26.09.26	Severstal Cherepovets - Sochi	3:1 ✺
24.09.26	Severstal Cherepovets - Avtomobilist Yekaterinburg	5:2 ✺
21.09.26	Amur Khabarovsk - Severstal Cherepovets	1:4 ✺
19.09.26	Admiral Vladivostok - Severstal Cherepovets	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LWWWL
- Shanghai Dragons
KHL
30.09.26	Shanghai Dragons - Metallurg Magnitogorsk	4:1 ✺
28.09.26	Shanghai Dragons - Sochi	4:1 ✺
26.09.26	Shanghai Dragons - Dinamo Minsk	2:1 ✺
22.09.26	Shanghai Dragons - Avtomobilist Yekaterinburg	3:2 ✺
15.09.26	SKA Saint Petersburg - Shanghai Dragons	7:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.9 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

KHL
12.02.26	Shanghai Dragons - Severstal Cherepovets	2:3
08.11.25	Shanghai Dragons - Severstal Cherepovets	2:4
01.11.25	Severstal Cherepovets - Shanghai Dragons	3:6
26.10.25	Severstal Cherepovets - Shanghai Dragons	4:1

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