Match Info

KHL

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Ice Palace (Cherepovets)


	Severstal Cherepovets		Sochi

	1	X	2
	1.63	4.11	4.68
	1.59	4	4.55
	1.74	4.39	4.39	Watch
	1.64	4.2	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.86)	4.18 ↓ (4.52)	4.46 ↑ (3.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Severstal Cherepovets
56.6%

Draw
22.4%

Sochi
21%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.2%

21.5%

26.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.9%

21.6%

26.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Severstal Cherepovets has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Sochi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sochi might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Severstal Cherepovets than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sochi than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sochi could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	12.5%	0%

Severstal Cherepovets - Sochi Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Severstal (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Severstal Cherepovets will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
29. Samoilov A. (G)	1. Andreyanov P. (G)
32. Gregoire T.	67. Lee C.
8. Kaldis Y.	88. Nikolayev I.
88. Dumbadze D. (A)	10. Vengryzhanovsky D. (A)
66. Podshivalov I.	72. Quinney G.
18. Veryayev D.	93. Khokhlachev A.
Line 2
78. Chuklinov S.	62. Solyannikov G.
75. Davydov T.	64. Graham J.
71. Popugayev N. A.	27. Korostelyov M.
17. Abrosimov R. (C)	77. Guskov M. (A)
11. Yan D. (A)	97. Ovchinnikov D.
Line 3
54. Churkin A.	13. Belyakov Y.
2. Grudinin V.	76. Akhiyarov T.
79. Artamonov N.	9. Kagarlitsky D. (C)
12. Skorenov A.	18. Gizdatullin A.
6. Ivantsov I.	41. Voronin K.
Line 4
77. Fomin M.	57. Guryev A.
70. Graf Y.	14. Polyakov N.
51. Kvochko I.	15. Petukhov Y.
42. Tankov K.	89. Guslistov N.
Substitutes
37. Reingardt I.	60. Bocharov I. (G)
30. Skotnikov V. (G)
Coaches
. Kozyrev A.	. Mironov A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
13:01, Davydov T. (2 min),
17:17, Belyakov Y. (2 min),
2nd Period (2 - 1)
04:27, 1 - 0, Gregoire T. (G), Graf Y. (A), Skorenov A. (A2)
05:22, 1 - 1, Akhiyarov T. (G), Kagarlitsky D. (A),
08:21, 2 - 1, Ivantsov I. (G), Skorenov A. (A), Artamonov N. (A2)
13:03, Churkin A. (2 min),
3rd Period (1 - 0)
02:26, Podshivalov I. (2 min),
08:07, Churkin A. (2 min),
19:30, 3 - 1, Yan D. (G), Abrosimov R. (A), Davydov T. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Severstal won 5.

In recent outings, Severstal has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Sochi is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Sochi could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Sochi has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

In this matchup, Severstal is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Severstal has recorded 15 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 82:51 (averaging 4.1:2.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Severstal against this opponent, the record stands at 9 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 40:23 goals (averaging 4:2.3 per game).

Outrights of KHL for now

Sochi: 0.28%

Last Results with these Odds

Severstal Cherepovets - the odds 1.86 are the expected chance of winning is 52.2%, but this team recently wins 77% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Severstal Cherepovets
KHL
24.09.26	Severstal Cherepovets - Avtomobilist Yekaterinburg	5:2 ✺
21.09.26	Amur Khabarovsk - Severstal Cherepovets	1:4 ✺
19.09.26	Admiral Vladivostok - Severstal Cherepovets	2:0 ✺
14.09.26	Severstal Cherepovets - Dynamo Moscow	0:2 ✺
12.09.26	Spartak Moscow - Severstal Cherepovets	8:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WWLLL
- HC Sochi
KHL
24.09.26	Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod - Sochi	3:0 ✺
20.09.26	Sochi - Sibir Novosibirsk	1:5 ✺
18.09.26	Sochi - Ak Bars Kazan	3:2 ✺
16.09.26	Sochi - HC CSKA Moscow	0:4 ✺
12.09.26	Sochi - SKA Saint Petersburg	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

KHL
21.01.26	Sochi - Severstal Cherepovets	4:5 OT
25.12.25	Severstal Cherepovets - Sochi	4:3 OT
06.11.25	Sochi - Severstal Cherepovets	4:5 OT
09.10.25	Severstal Cherepovets - Sochi	3:0
26.01.25	Sochi - Severstal Cherepovets	3:4 penalties
20.12.24	Severstal Cherepovets - Sochi	2:1
18.12.24	Severstal Cherepovets - Sochi	4:2

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