Match Info

QMJHL

Date: 19 February 2026, Thursday

Location: Centre Gervais Auto (Shawinigan, QC)


	Shawinigan Cataractes		Saint John Sea Dogs

	1	X	2
	1.47	5.3	4.9
	1.45	5.22	4.82
	1.36	5	5.5
	1.43	5	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↓ (1.46)	5.13 ↑ (5.09)	4.93 ↑ (4.63)

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shawinigan Cataractes
63.8%

Draw
17.7%

Saint John Sea Dogs
18.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.5%

17.9%

19.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.5%

14.8%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shawinigan Cataractes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Saint John Sea Dogs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shawinigan Cataractes than the current prediction. (-12.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Shawinigan Cataractes that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Saint John Sea Dogs than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Saint John Sea Dogs could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Fernandez M. (G)	37. Courchesne R. (G)
37. Bergeron F.	2. Baldwin E.
44. Charron O.	5. Chartrand C.
61. Dumais L.	91. Cote M. (A)
86. Elie V.	26. Damphousse B.
12. Gagnon L.	9. Donovan A.
8. Hockley D.	13. Drabczynski O.
97. Klima J.	71. Duhamel O. (A)
55. Lacerte F. (A)	81. Fullerton A. (A)
93. Laframboise D.	28. Gauthier A.
3. Lanthier J.	86. Groulx O. (C)
72. Lygitsakos C. (A)	54. Heroux N.
77. Ouellet N.	19. Joseph A.
6. Plamondon F. (A)	21. Krayer M.
5. Plante M.	44. Magnusson C.
24. Prudhomme J.	10. Morin Z.
20. Satan M.	8. Rozzi D.
81. Schneider E.	3. Wasmer J.
71. Semenyov G.	22. Yared W.
Substitutes
40. Boucher P. (G)	31. Radkov A. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 2)
13:47, 0 - 1, Wasmer J. (G), Duhamel O. (A), Groulx O. (A2)
16:21, 1 - 1, Lanthier J. (G),
18:57, 1 - 2, Yared W. (G), Rozzi D. (A),
2nd Period (1 - 0)
17:12, 2 - 2, Elie V. (G),
3rd Period (4 - 0)
02:50, 3 - 2, Ouellet N. (G), Semenyov G. (A),
05:59, 4 - 2, Schneider E. (G), Charron O. (A), Prudhomme J. (A2)
06:45, 5 - 2, Klima J. (G), Lacerte F. (A), Elie V. (A2)
12:20, 6 - 2, Plante M. (G), Dumais L. (A), Ouellet N. (A2)

Preview

Shawinigan is Qualified for QMJHL (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Shawinigan won 4.

Shawinigan is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Saint John has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Saint John may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Shawinigan has had a series of away games.

Recently, Saint John has had a series of home games.

In this match, Shawinigan is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Shawinigan won 15 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 88:60. (average 4.4:3).

Including home matches between the teams, Shawinigan won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 44:29. (average 4.4:2.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Saint John Sea Dogs - the odds 4.63 are the expected chance of winning is 19.67%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shawinigan Cataractes
QMJHL
15.02.26	Moncton Wildcats - Shawinigan Cataractes	6:2 ✺
14.02.26	Saint John Sea Dogs - Shawinigan Cataractes	3:2 OT ✺
12.02.26	Halifax Mooseheads - Shawinigan Cataractes	2:1 penalties ✺
11.02.26	Charlottetown Islanders - Shawinigan Cataractes	6:3 ✺
07.02.26	Shawinigan Cataractes - Baie-Comeau Drakkar	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLLW
- Saint John Sea Dogs
QMJHL
16.02.26	Saint John Sea Dogs - Victoriaville Tigres	5:2 ✺
14.02.26	Saint John Sea Dogs - Shawinigan Cataractes	3:2 OT ✺
07.02.26	Saint John Sea Dogs - Newfoundland Regiment	4:5 OT ✺
06.02.26	Saint John Sea Dogs - Moncton Wildcats	2:5 ✺
01.02.26	Saint John Sea Dogs - Baie-Comeau Drakkar	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

QMJHL
14.02.26	Saint John Sea Dogs - Shawinigan Cataractes	3:2 OT
23.02.25	Shawinigan Cataractes - Saint John Sea Dogs	4:1
15.02.25	Saint John Sea Dogs - Shawinigan Cataractes	4:6
26.01.24	Shawinigan Cataractes - Saint John Sea Dogs	5:3
18.01.24	Saint John Sea Dogs - Shawinigan Cataractes	1:6
18.01.23	Saint John Sea Dogs - Shawinigan Cataractes	1:4
02.12.22	Shawinigan Cataractes - Saint John Sea Dogs	6:2

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