Match Info

Liiga

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Gatorade Center (Turku)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	TPS		HIFK

	1	X	2
	2.01	4.25	2.85
	2.15	4.00	2.75
	2.05	3.95	3.05	Watch
	2.16	3.72	2.95
	2.17	3.9	2.85	Watch
	2.13	3.65	2.90
	2.11	4.15	2.88	Watch
	2.08	3.95	2.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↓ (2.25)	3.95 ↑ (3.8)	2.89 ↑ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

TPS
44.2%

Draw
23.6%

HIFK
32.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.7%

24.7%

33.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.8%

25.2%

34.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

TPS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

HIFK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for TPS than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for HIFK than the current prediction. (+2%)

TPS - HIFK Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
36. Makiniemi E. (G)	60. Alnefelt H. (G)
38. Landen A.	28. Pilo L.
5. Friman N. (C)	33. Kiviharju A.
49. Wernblom L.	88. Huuhtanen N. (A)
97. Haudum L.	77. Leschyshyn J.
22. Bryggman L.	72. Liukas E.
Line 2
6. Rafkin R. (A)	67. Puutio K.
40. Lehtonen S.	25. Nassen L.
25. Ikonen Jo.	43. Marleau V.
13. Paajanen O. (A)	21. Lehtera J. (A)
86. Yliniemi S.	71. Makiaho D.
Line 3
2. Tuhkala A.	85. Jalasti B.
61. Binner A.	90. Salmela S.
9. Koivu A.	19. Leppanen O.
21. Maatta J.	12. Joki A.
24. Virtanen J.	54. Somervuori J.
Line 4
4. Chicoine G.	13. Arkko V.
10. Ylitalo N.	81. Pakarinen I. (C)
47. Kuru H.	18. Uronen A.
57. Munkki V.	93. Vanhatalo L.
Substitutes
84. Pikkarainen K.	31. Juel T. (G)
30. Ruusu M. (G)
Coaches
. Soderholm T.	. Jokinen O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (3 - 0)
04:18, Pilo L. (2 min),
06:09, 1 - 0, Wernblom L. (G), Haudum L. (A), Bryggman L. (A2)
13:27, Makiaho D. (2 min),
13:39, 2 - 0, Bryggman L. (G), Binner A. (A), Wernblom L. (A2)
19:42, 3 - 0, Friman N. (G), Bryggman L. (A), Wernblom L. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 1)
02:01, Leschyshyn J. (2 min),
05:39, 3 - 1, Marleau V. (G), Lehtera J. (A), Makiaho D. (A2)
10:20, Leschyshyn J. (2 min),
11:37, 4 - 1, Koivu A. (G), Tuhkala A. (A), Paajanen O. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 0)
00:44, Haudum L. (2 min),
13:56, 5 - 1, Bryggman L. (G), Wernblom L. (A), Haudum L. (A2)
14:50, Kuru H. (2 min),
17:56, Landen A. (2 min),
17:56, Huuhtanen N. (2 min),
19:22, Somervuori J. (2 min),
19:22, Paajanen O. (2 min),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, TPS won 2.

TPS is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In recent matches, HIFK has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

HIFK may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, TPS has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, TPS won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 44:47. (average 2.2:2.4).

Including home matches between the teams, TPS won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 21:23. (average 2.1:2.3).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

IFK Helsinki: 4.72% TPS Turku: 3.47%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
11	TPS Turku	10	5	0	0	5	26:21	15
15	IFK Helsinki	10	2	1	2	5	25:33	10

Last Results with these Odds

TPS - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 41.74%, but this team recently wins 28% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- TPS hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
01.09.26	TPS - KooKoo	4:2 ✺
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
25.08.26	TPS - Jokerit	4:2 ✺
22.08.26	TPS - Lugano	3:2 ✺
21.08.26	Schwenninger Wild Wings - TPS	4:5 ✺
14.08.26	TPS - Lukko	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20 WWWWW
- HIFK Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
04.09.26	HIFK - HPK	5:3 ✺
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
27.08.26	KooKoo - HIFK	1:4 ✺
21.08.26	HIFK - KalPa	1:3 ✺
14.08.26	HIFK - Pelicans	4:2 ✺
08.08.26	Ilves - HIFK	1:0 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
20.12.25	TPS - HIFK	4:3
19.12.25	HIFK - TPS	3:4 OT
28.11.25	HIFK - TPS	3:2
27.09.25	TPS - HIFK	1:2
21.02.25	HIFK - TPS	3:2
11.01.25	TPS - HIFK	2:3
18.10.24	TPS - HIFK	2:4

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