The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
TPS 45.2%
Draw 24.1%
Lukko 30.7%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
41.8%
24.6%
33.6%
Our Initial ML Estimation
39.6%
25.5%
34.9%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
TPS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)
Lukko has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for TPS than the current prediction. (-5.6%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with TPS that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lukko than the current prediction. (+4.2%)
TPS - Lukko Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2
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Lineups
Line 1
36. Makiniemi E. (G)
30. Salonen D. (G)
6. Rafkin R. (A)
9. Stenqvist J.
44. Lindbohm P.
27. Seppala P.
49. Wernblom L.
16. Beaucage A.
97. Haudum L.
93. Ruohomaa M. (A)
22. Bryggman L. (A)
18. Liedes H. (C)
Line 2
38. Landen A.
34. Viitasalo N.
40. Lehtonen S.
43. Valila A.
25. Ikonen Jo.
87. Saarela A. (A)
86. Yliniemi S.
91. Robert F.
24. Virtanen J.
23. Trakht D.
Line 3
2. Tuhkala A.
96. Harpur C.
61. Binner A.
56. Olsson A.
9. Koivu A.
6. Tuuva L.
13. Paajanen O. (C)
29. Vanninen A.
10. Ylitalo N.
57. Mensonen J.
Line 4
7. Lauridsen O.
15. Tukiainen J.
84. Pikkarainen K.
48. Ikonen H.
21. Maatta J.
24. Krannila J.
57. Munkki V.
47. Haapanen T.
Substitutes
47. Kuru H.
33. Pulakka V.
32. Vali N. (G)
32. Raanta A. (G)
Coaches
. Soderholm T.
. Lamsa T.
Key Events of the Match
1st Period (0 - 1)
05:25, 0 - 1, Ikonen H. (G), Krannila J. (A), Haapanen T. (A2)
07:58, Wernblom L. (5 min),
2nd Period (0 - 1)
09:35, 0 - 2, Beaucage A. (G), Liedes H. (A),
16:28, Stenqvist J. (2 min),
3rd Period (1 - 1)
11:57, 0 - 3, Ruohomaa M. (G), Harpur C. (A), Beaucage A. (A2)
13:18, Viitasalo N. (2 min),
18:17, 1 - 3, Maatta J. (G), Binner A. (A), Virtanen J. (A2)
19:27, Ylitalo N. (2 min),
19:35, Virtanen J. (Penalty Shot),
Preview
A competitive mid-table side looks to challenge an upper-table opponent (ranked 7th in the Promotion - Liiga Playoffs - 1/8 - finals and 1st in the Promotion - Liiga Playoffs - Quarter - finals).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, TPS won 1.
Both teams are currently displaying solid and consistent form.
The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, TPS has recorded 9 wins, 0 draws, and 11 losses, with a goal aggregate of 46:51 (averaging 2.3:2.6 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for TPS against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with 22:17 goals (averaging 2.4:1.9 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
WO
LO
L
Pts
1
Lukko
19
11
3
1
4
53:36
40
7
TPS Turku
19
9
1
2
7
53:48
31
Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now
TPS Turku: 5.33%
Last Results with these Odds
TPS - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 41.79%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.
Finland
Sweden
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Makiniemi E. (G) 
Stenqvist J. 
Beaucage A. 
Haudum L. 
Trakht D. 
Lauridsen O. 
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