Match Info

Liiga

Date: 23 January 2026, Friday

Location: Gatorade Center (Turku)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV 3, MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	TPS		Pelicans

	1	X	2
	2	4	3.2
	2.11	3.91	3.09	Watch
	2.13	3.37	3.09
	2.15	3.55	3.15	Watch
	2	3.6	2.88
	2.1	3.88	3.04	Watch
	2.15	3.6	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↓ (2.14)	3.7 ↓ (3.88)	3.09 ↑ (2.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.50

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

TPS
44.6%

Draw
25.2%

Pelicans
30.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.6%

24.1%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1%

25.6%

34.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

TPS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Pelicans has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for TPS than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pelicans than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

TPS - Pelicans Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
36. Makiniemi E. (G)	32. Bartosak P. (G)
6. Rafkin R. (A)	44. Kousa M. (A)
61. Binner A.	61. Jurgens C. (C)
49. Wernblom L.	37. Dudas A.
86. Yliniemi S.	7. Stapley B.
19. Savinainen V.	10. Karvinen R.
Line 2
5. Sjoholm V.	47. Jordan M. (A)
4. Jokinen M.	55. Falk H.
84. Pikkarainen K.	88. Vanderbeck A.
21. Maatta J. (A)	91. Vilen E.
82. Pakkila E.	72. Carlsson P.
Line 3
38. Landen A.	4. Johannesen J.
7. Lauridsen O. (C)	87. Nieminen D.
87. Saarela A.	82. Kettunen A.
20. Myllymaa K.	95. Batna O.
9. Koivu A.	96. Kumpula J.
Line 4
2. Tuhkala A.	83. Luhanka E.
10. Ylitalo N.	27. Lind O.
57. Munkki V.	29. Vaananen M.
67. Ruokonen M.	20. Hirvonen K.
Substitutes
1. Niittymaki A. (G)	1. Emond Z. (G)
Coaches
. Soderholm T.	. Kapanen S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 1)
03:13, (2 min),
10:46, 0 - 1, Stapley B. (G), Jordan M. (A), Karvinen R. (A2)
17:07, 1 - 1, Yliniemi S. (G), Savinainen V. (A), Binner A. (A2)
2nd Period (2 - 2)
04:08, Savinainen V. (2 min),
04:58, 1 - 2, Batna O. (G), Karvinen R. (A), Stapley B. (A2)
07:43, Wernblom L. (2 min),
08:48, 1 - 3, Stapley B. (G), Karvinen R. (A), Dudas A. (A2)
10:39, Vilen E. (2 min),
13:34, Kumpula J. (2 min),
15:14, 2 - 3, Koivu A. (G), Myllymaa K. (A), Maatta J. (A2)
16:30, 3 - 3, Pikkarainen K. (G), Pakkila E. (A), Lauridsen O. (A2)
17:03, Kumpula J. (2 min),
18:00, Jurgens C. (5 min),
3rd Period (0 - 0)
09:04, Wernblom L. (2 min),
09:04, Hirvonen K. (2 min),
19:57, Rafkin R. (2 min),
19:57, Batna O. (2 min),
Overtime (0 - 1)
01:26, 3 - 4, Dudas A. (G), Kousa M. (A), Stapley B. (A2)

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, TPS won 5.

Recent performances by TPS have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Pelicans's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

TPS will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, TPS won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 50:53. (average 2.5:2.7).

Including home matches between the teams, TPS won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 29:24. (average 2.9:2.4).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

TPS Turku: 3.42%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
11	TPS Turku	11	5	0	1	5	29:25	16
12	Pelicans	10	5	0	1	4	24:23	16

Last Results with these Odds

TPS - the odds 2.14 are the expected chance of winning is 43.63%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- TPS hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
17.01.26	TPS - Tappara	4:2 ✺
16.01.26	HPK - TPS	3:1 ✺
10.01.26	TPS - Kärpät	2:3 ✺
09.01.26	SaiPa - TPS	1:4 ✺
03.01.26	Ilves - TPS	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 WLLWL
- Pelicans Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
17.01.26	KooKoo - Pelicans	1:2 ✺
16.01.26	Pelicans - KalPa	1:3 ✺
13.01.26	Lukko - Pelicans	4:3 OT ✺
10.01.26	Pelicans - HPK	1:4 ✺
03.01.26	KalPa - Pelicans	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
25.10.25	Pelicans - TPS	1:2 OT
17.09.25	TPS - Pelicans	3:1
15.03.25	Pelicans - TPS	3:4 OT
18.01.25	TPS - Pelicans	3:2
20.12.24	Pelicans - TPS	3:4
30.10.24	TPS - Pelicans	5:3
17.02.24	TPS - Pelicans	1:3

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