Match Info

SM-sarja U20

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday


	TPS U20		Kärpät U20

	1	X	2
	2.20	4.40	2.10
	2.22	3.93	2.50
	2.18	4.34	2.51	Watch
	2.19	3.85	2.45
	2.20	3.98	2.48
	2.17	4.00	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↑ (2.11)	4.08 ↓ (4.22)	2.42 ↓ (2.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.50

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

TPS U20
40.9%

Draw
22%

Kärpät U20
37.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.6%

21.8%

34.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.7%

23.4%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

TPS U20 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Kärpät U20 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for TPS U20 than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for TPS U20, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kärpät U20 than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

TPS U20 - Kärpät U20 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 2)
08:22, 0 - 1, Niemela V. (G), Kokkonen L. (A), Pitkanen E. (A2)
12:14, 0 - 2, Kahkonen V. (G), Apukka M. (A), Ruotsalainen V. (A2)
13:37, 1 - 2, Fugleberg P. (G), Parssinen J. (A), Schmidt A. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 1)
14:57, 2 - 2, Uusikartano A. (Penalty Shot),
18:36, 2 - 3, Kylmala O. (G), Erholtz A. (A),
3rd Period (1 - 0)
18:48, 3 - 3, Parssinen J. (G), Laine L. (A), Kallio W. (A2)
Overtime (0 - 1)
03:29, 3 - 4, Ruotsalainen V. (G), Jurvelin L. (A), Kylmala O. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, TPS U20 won 0.

TPS U20 has struggled for results with multiple recent losses (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Performances by Kärpät U20 have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Recently, Kärpät U20 has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, TPS U20 has recorded 9 wins, 0 draws, and 11 losses, with a goal aggregate of 34:51 (averaging 1.7:2.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for TPS U20 against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, with 13:16 goals (averaging 1.4:1.8 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
7	Karpat U20	12	5	3	0	4	40:35	21
11	TPS U20	11	3	0	4	4	30:41	13

Last Results with these Odds

TPS U20 - the odds 2.11 are the expected chance of winning is 43.61%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Kärpät U20 - the odds 2.66 are the expected chance of winning is 34.59%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- TPS U20
Finnish SM-sarja U20
19.09.26	Ilves U20 - TPS U20	6:5 penalties ✺
11.09.26	TPS U20 - Kiekko-Espoo U20	1:5 ✺
09.09.26	TPS U20 - Pelicans U20	1:7 ✺
05.09.26	HPK U20 - TPS U20	6:1 ✺
04.09.26	TPS U20 - Tappara U20	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Kärpät U20
Finnish SM-sarja U20
19.09.26	Lukko U20 - Kärpät U20	2:1 ✺
12.09.26	Kärpät U20 - Jokerit U20	2:5 ✺
11.09.26	Kärpät U20 - HIFK U20	0:5 ✺
05.09.26	Kärpät U20 - JYP U20	8:7 penalties ✺
04.09.26	Kärpät U20 - Ässät U20	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-sarja U20
03.01.26	TPS U20 - Kärpät U20	1:2
26.10.25	Kärpät U20 - TPS U20	5:2
21.09.24	TPS U20 - Kärpät U20	0:5
15.09.24	Kärpät U20 - TPS U20	1:0
02.02.24	Kärpät U20 - TPS U20	5:2
12.10.23	Kärpät U20 - TPS U20	7:0
03.03.23	Kärpät U20 - TPS U20	3:4 OT

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