Match Info

VHL

Date: 29 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Kristall (Tambov)


	Tambov		Gornyak-UGMK

	1	X	2
	3.24	4.15	1.93	Watch
	3.3	4.25	1.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.27 ↑ (2.91)	4.2 ↑ (3.6)	1.92 ↓ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tambov
28.7%

Draw
22.3%

Gornyak-UGMK
49%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.1%

25.9%

42%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.9%

26.5%

41%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tambov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Gornyak-UGMK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gornyak-UGMK's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tambov than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gornyak-UGMK than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Gornyak-UGMK, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	33.3%	66.7%

Tambov - Gornyak UGMK Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Gornyak-UGMK will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
89. Valiullin S. (G)	20. Obvintsev T. (G)
95. Pesterev V.	72. Trofimov Y.
62. Lugovyak S.	4. Bolshakov M.
97. Grymzin S.	56. Ovchinnikov I.
92. Korinevsky M.	13. Zaytsev O.
17. Samsonov D.	7. Gordin A.
Line 2
45. Yanevsky S.	92. Valitov D.
28. Bulychyov G.	23. Gamzakov M.
84. Nizovkin M.	44. Lukhovskoy N.
71. Koltygin P.	29. Khremkin K.
37. Baranov Y.	14. Makhrin M.
Line 3
72. Vasin I.	16. Myslyayev S.
24. Mamkin M.	3. Zubarev A.
74. Zhabreyev A.	96. Miller N.
27. Andriyanov A.	80. Demidovich V.
9. Peshekhonov V.	10. Filyayev V.
Line 4
87. Gorbunov Y.	95. Dumchenko N.
86. Kopyltsov S.	22. Molodtsov D.
93. Yermakov I.	63. Isayev D.
	59. Razdyakonov V.
	18. Sushchev V.
Substitutes
96. Pyanov E.	30. Novosyolov N. (G)
98. Smirnov A. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 2)
03:02, 0 - 1, Gordin A. (G), Ovchinnikov I. (A), Bolshakov M. (A2)
07:56, 1 - 1, Korinevsky M. (G), Samsonov D. (A),
17:20, 1 - 2, Gordin A. (G), Zaytsev O. (A), Filyayev V. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 1)
17:45, 1 - 3, Demidovich V. (G), Miller N. (A),
3rd Period (0 - 2)
06:00, 1 - 4, Sushchev V. (G), Razdyakonov V. (A),
14:25, 1 - 5, Filyayev V. (G),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tambov won 2.

Recent form of Tambov has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Gornyak-UGMK's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Tambov may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Gornyak-UGMK has had a series of home games.

Gornyak-UGMK will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Tambov won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 38:62. (average 2.1:3.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Tambov won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 19:34. (average 1.9:3.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Gornyak-UGMK - the odds 2.22 are the expected chance of winning is 42.02%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HC Tambov
VHL
27.10.25	Tambov - Chelmet	3:4 ✺
25.10.25	Tambov - Magnitka Magnitogorsk	1:2 OT ✺
23.10.25	Tambov - Yuzhny Ural Orsk	4:1 ✺
18.10.25	Torpedo-Gorky - Tambov	6:0 ✺
16.10.25	Khimik - Tambov	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLWLL
- Gornyak-UGMK
VHL
24.10.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Dynamo-Altay	2:3 penalties ✺
22.10.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Metallurg Novokuznetsk	4:5 ✺
20.10.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Sokol Krasnoyarsk	2:4 ✺
18.10.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Norilsk	4:1 ✺
13.10.25	SKA-VMF - Gornyak-UGMK	2:3 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

VHL
16.01.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Tambov	3:4 OT
04.11.24	Tambov - Gornyak-UGMK	3:4 penalties
10.12.23	Gornyak-UGMK - Tambov	5:3
04.11.23	Tambov - Gornyak-UGMK	2:6
26.11.22	Tambov - Gornyak-UGMK	5:1
21.11.22	Gornyak-UGMK - Tambov	7:0
19.01.22	Tambov - Gornyak-UGMK	0:3

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