Match Info

VHL

Date: 25 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Gornyak-UGMK		Norilsk

	1	X	2
	2.23	3.10	2.73
	2.18	3.00	2.65
	2.27	3.83	2.72	Watch
	2.16	3.75	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↓ (2.24)	3.42 ↓ (3.77)	2.71 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gornyak-UGMK
40.6%

Draw
26.3%

Norilsk
33.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

40.8%

24.2%

35.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.7%

25.3%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gornyak-UGMK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Norilsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gornyak-UGMK than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Norilsk than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Gornyak UGMK - Norilsk Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
	98. Gluschenko R. (G)
	11. Steklov K.
	4. Shalapov Y. (C)
	88. Shalagin M. (A)
	36. Zlodeyev D.
	86. Kirileichenko M.
Line 2
	43. Sinitsky I.
	66. Drugalya S. (A)
	17. Golodnyuk S.
	87. Gorbunov Y.
	69. Filin F.
Line 3
	39. Bolshakov M.
	3. Melyakov K.
	14. Sinyatkin S.
	89. Yemets I.
	23. Klimovich Y.
Line 4
	71. Rasseikin M.
	22. Rodionov A.
	28. Shevchenko A.
	67. Sharifyanov T.
Substitutes
	77. Guskov Y. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 1)
05:49, 0 - 1, Shalagin M. (G), Yemets I. (A),
2nd Period (0 - 1)
10:39, 0 - 2, Rasseikin M. (G), Sinyatkin S. (A),
3rd Period (0 - 0)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gornyak-UGMK won 3.

Gornyak-UGMK is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Norilsk shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Gornyak-UGMK could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Gornyak-UGMK holding a narrow advantage.

Our forecast points to a victory for Norilsk in today's match, at odds of 2.95.

In the last 12 head-to-head meetings, Gornyak-UGMK has recorded 6 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 39:34 (averaging 3.3:2.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Gornyak-UGMK against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 30:14 goals (averaging 5:2.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
2	HC Norilsk	20	11	2	2	5	49:43	28

Last Results with these Odds

Norilsk - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 35.05%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gornyak-UGMK
VHL
18.10.26	Kaluga - Gornyak-UGMK	1:3 ✺
16.10.26	AKM - Gornyak-UGMK	4:1 ✺
14.10.26	Ryazan - Gornyak-UGMK	5:3 ✺
06.10.26	Gornyak-UGMK - Bars Kazan	2:3 ✺
04.10.26	Gornyak-UGMK - Neftyanik Almetyevsk	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WLLLL
- HK Norilsk
VHL
23.10.26	Chelmet - Norilsk	1:2 ✺
21.10.26	Magnitka Magnitogorsk - Norilsk	2:3 OT ✺
19.10.26	Yuzhny Ural Orsk - Norilsk	3:2 ✺
12.10.26	Norilsk - Molot Perm	3:1 ✺
10.10.26	Norilsk - Toros Neftekamsk	5:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

VHL
01.02.26	Norilsk - Gornyak-UGMK	0:1 penalties
18.10.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Norilsk	4:1
04.04.25	Norilsk - Gornyak-UGMK	5:2
02.04.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Norilsk	12:1
30.03.25	Norilsk - Gornyak-UGMK	3:2
28.03.25	Norilsk - Gornyak-UGMK	4:0
25.03.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Norilsk	2:6

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