Match Info

VHL

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Ledovaya Arena A. Kozitsyna (Verkhnyaya Pyshma)


	Gornyak-UGMK		Norilsk

	1	X	2
	1.72	4.2	3.96
	1.75	4.33	3.79	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 (1.74)	4.27 ↑ (4.25)	3.88 ↑ (3.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gornyak-UGMK
53.9%

Draw
21.9%

Norilsk
24.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.8%

22%

24.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.8%

21.6%

23.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gornyak-UGMK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Norilsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gornyak-UGMK than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Norilsk than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Gornyak UGMK - Norilsk Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
30. Novosyolov N. (G)	45. Nikitin V. (G)
4. Bolshakov M.	18. Alexeyev D.
72. Trofimov Y.	43. Ugolnikov A. (A)
98. Guskov I.	56. Mokin N. (A)
10. Filyayev V.	13. Kaletnik V. (C)
32. Borisov S.	63. Yemets I.
Line 2
95. Dumchenko N.	72. Korchemkin D.
16. Myslyayev S.	98. Abdeyev I.
7. Gordin A.	71. Golodnyuk S.
13. Zaytsev O. (C)	89. Gorbunov D.
80. Demidovich V.	93. Korenev I.
Line 3
23. Gamzakov M.	64. Minayev Y.
92. Valitov D. (A)	28. Makeyev N.
29. Khremkin K.	26. Bain M.
14. Makhrin M. (A)	11. Shevchenko V.
44. Lukhovskoy N.	69. Skorikov D.
Line 4
90. Nekrasov N.	51. Popov O.
3. Zubarev A.	55. Alkhimov S.
59. Razdyakonov V.	58. Yadykin Y.
18. Sushchev V.	97. Leontyev A.
63. Isayev D.
Substitutes
20. Obvintsev T. (G)	88. Smirnov A. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 0)
07:13, 1 - 0, Makhrin M. (G), Lukhovskoy N. (A), Valitov D. (A2)
09:27, 2 - 0, Valitov D. (G), Borisov S. (A), Makhrin M. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 1)
04:16, 3 - 0, Razdyakonov V. (G), Sushchev V. (A), Isayev D. (A2)
09:15, 3 - 1, Bain M. (G), Skorikov D. (A),
3rd Period (1 - 0)
04:15, 4 - 1, Filyayev V. (G), Guskov I. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gornyak-UGMK won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Gornyak-UGMK may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Gornyak-UGMK is considered a favorite.

We predict that Gornyak-UGMK will win today's game, with odds of 1.74.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Gornyak-UGMK won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 34:33. (average 3.4:3.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Gornyak-UGMK won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 26:13. (average 5.2:2.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Gornyak-UGMK - the odds 1.74 are the expected chance of winning is 53.76%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gornyak-UGMK
VHL
13.10.25	SKA-VMF - Gornyak-UGMK	2:3 OT ✺
11.10.25	Dinamo St. Petersburg - Gornyak-UGMK	2:4 ✺
05.10.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Neftyanik Almetyevsk	0:2 ✺
03.10.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Chelny	5:0 ✺
01.10.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Bars Kazan	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWLWL
- HK Norilsk
VHL
16.10.25	Chelmet - Norilsk	1:3 ✺
14.10.25	Magnitka Magnitogorsk - Norilsk	2:3 ✺
12.10.25	Yuzhny Ural Orsk - Norilsk	2:1 ✺
06.10.25	Norilsk - Torpedo-Gorky	0:5 ✺
04.10.25	Norilsk - Khimik	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

VHL
04.04.25	Norilsk - Gornyak-UGMK	5:2
02.04.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Norilsk	12:1
30.03.25	Norilsk - Gornyak-UGMK	3:2
28.03.25	Norilsk - Gornyak-UGMK	4:0
25.03.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Norilsk	2:6
23.03.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Norilsk	2:1 OT
18.03.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Norilsk	4:2

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