Match Info

NHL

Date: 6 January 2026, Tuesday

Location: Benchmark International Arena (Tampa, FL)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5
Germany	NHL.tv
Iceland	Viaplay
Mexico	Sky Sport
Norway	Viaplay
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	NHL.tv


	Tampa Bay Lightning		Colorado Avalanche

	1	X	2
	2.6	4.2	2.3	Watch
	2.59	4.14	2.35
	2.53	4.33	2.35	Watch
	2.5	4.33	2.38
	2.56	4.31	2.36
	2.5	4.25	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↓ (2.74)	4.26 ↓ (4.39)	2.35 ↑ (2.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tampa Bay Lightning
37.3%

Draw
22.3%

Colorado Avalanche
40.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.5%

21.5%

44%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.6%

20.3%

46.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tampa Bay Lightning has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Colorado Avalanche has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tampa Bay Lightning than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Colorado Avalanche than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Colorado Avalanche could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	33.3%	16.7%

Tampa Bay Lightning - Colorado Avalanche Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Tampa Bay will win (votes: 6 - 50%). Colorado will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tampa Bay: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Tampa Bay (votes: 3 - 60%). Colorado (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:4

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Lineups

Line 1
88. Vasilevski A. (G)	41. Wedgewood S. (G)
43. Raddysh D.	8. Makar C. (A)
90. Moser J.J.	49. Girard S.
86. Kucherov N. (A)	88. Necas M.
21. Point B.	29. MacKinnon N. (A)
93. Goncalves G.	95. Olofsson V.
Line 2
81. Cernak E.	84. Burns B.
51. D'Astous C.	42. Manson J.
59. Guentzel J. (A)	13. Nichushkin V.
71. Cirelli A. (A)	11. Nelson B.
38. Hagel B.	62. Lehkonen A.
Line 3
24. Crozier M.	70. Malinski S.
67. Carlile D.	28. Solovyov I.
29. Holmberg P.	54. Brindley G.
37. Gourde Y.	18. Drury J.
28. Girgensons Z.	20. Colton R.
Line 4
22. Bjorkstrand O.	93. Bardakov Z.
17. James D.	17. Kelly P.
20. Paul N.	16. Makar T.
Substitutes
31. Johansson J. (G)	50. Miner T. (G)
Coaches
. Cooper J.	. Bednar J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 0)
03:58, Raddysh D. (2 min),
18:14, Burns B. (2 min),
19:48, 1 - 0, Guentzel J. (G), Kucherov N. (A), Raddysh D. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 2)
03:22, 1 - 1, Kelly P. (G), Bardakov Z. (A), Solovyov I. (A2)
07:28, Bardakov Z. (2 min),
09:31, 1 - 2, Nelson B. (G), Makar C. (A),
17:22, 2 - 2, Girgensons Z. (G), Gourde Y. (A), Holmberg P. (A2)
3rd Period (2 - 0)
01:19, D'Astous C. (2 min),
08:31, 3 - 2, Hagel B. (G), Crozier M. (A), Kucherov N. (A2)
18:35, 4 - 2, Cirelli A. (G), Hagel B. (A), Raddysh D. (A2)
20:00, D'Astous C. (2 min),

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tampa Bay won 3.

Tampa Bay is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Colorado is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Tampa Bay may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Tampa Bay has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Tampa Bay: Hedman V. (Elbow Injury) Lilleberg E. (Injury) Sabourin S. (Head Injury)

There will not play in Colorado: Blackwood M. (Lower-Body Injury) Landeskog G. (Upper-Body Injury) O'Connor L. (Hip Injury) Toews D. (Upper-Body Injury)

There are questionable in Tampa Bay: McDonagh R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Colorado: Kiviranta J. (Lower-Body Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tampa Bay won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 71:59. (average 3.6:3).

Including home matches between the teams, Tampa Bay won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 40:23. (average 4.4:2.6).

Outrights of NHL for now

Colorado Avalanche: 9.47% Tampa Bay Lightning: 6.22%

Last Results with these Odds

Tampa Bay Lightning - the odds 2.74 are the expected chance of winning is 34.5%, but this team recently wins 65% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tampa Bay Lightning
NHL
03.01.26	San Jose Sharks - Tampa Bay Lightning	3:7 ✺
01.01.26	Los Angeles Kings - Tampa Bay Lightning	3:5 ✺
31.12.25	Anaheim Ducks - Tampa Bay Lightning	3:4 OT ✺
28.12.25	Tampa Bay Lightning - Montreal Canadiens	5:4 penalties ✺
27.12.25	Florida Panthers - Tampa Bay Lightning	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 WWWWW
- Colorado Avalanche
NHL
04.01.26	Florida Panthers - Colorado Avalanche	2:1 ✺
03.01.26	Carolina Hurricanes - Colorado Avalanche	3:5 ✺
31.12.25	Colorado Avalanche - St. Louis Blues	6:1 ✺
29.12.25	Colorado Avalanche - Los Angeles Kings	5:2 ✺
27.12.25	Vegas Golden Knights - Colorado Avalanche	5:6 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

NHL
04.11.25	Colorado Avalanche - Tampa Bay Lightning	3:2
25.11.24	Tampa Bay Lightning - Colorado Avalanche	8:2
30.10.24	Colorado Avalanche - Tampa Bay Lightning	2:5
15.02.24	Tampa Bay Lightning - Colorado Avalanche	6:3
27.11.23	Colorado Avalanche - Tampa Bay Lightning	4:1
14.02.23	Colorado Avalanche - Tampa Bay Lightning	3:4 penalties
09.02.23	Tampa Bay Lightning - Colorado Avalanche	5:0

Tampa Bay Lightning - Colorado Avalanche: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide