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Current Win Probability
Toronto Marlies 40.9%
Draw 22.3%
Belleville Senators 36.8%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
37.9%
22.6%
39.5%
Our Initial ML Estimation
35.3%
24.3%
42.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toronto Marlies has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)
Belleville Senators has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toronto Marlies than the current prediction. (-5.6%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Toronto Marlies that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Belleville Senators than the current prediction. (+5.6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Belleville Senators could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
33.3%
66.7%
0%
Toronto Marlies - Belleville Senators Predictions
Users Predictions:
3 users predict this event. Toronto will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
70. Akhtyamov A. (G)
30. Shepard H. (G)
72. Boyd T.
5. Bongiovanni W.
58. Chadwick N.
16. Boucher T.
29. Groulx B.
13. Bourgault X.
43. Haymes L.
4. Crotty C.
65. Johnson R.
10. Daoust P.
57. Johnstone M. (A)
11. Donovan J.
71. Lettieri V.
48. Gilbert D.
92. Nylander A.
29. Hamara T.
61. Pezzetta M.
14. Harrington S. (A)
26. Quillan J.
42. Hodgson H. (A)
83. Rifai M. (A)
39. Hookey L.
11. Shaw L. (C)
24. Jenik J.
59. Smith B.
43. Kaliyev A.
3. Thrun H.
15. Lycksell O.
77. Tverberg R.
32. Pettersson O.
39. Valis B.
19. Rees J.
76. Villeneuve W.
33. Thomson L.
52. Webber C.
27. Washkurak K. (A)
Substitutes
50. Peksa V. (G)
31. Parsons J. (G)
Key Events of the Match
1st Period (1 - 0)
19:24, 1 - 0, Johnson R. (G), Johnstone M. (A), Pezzetta M. (A2)
2nd Period (4 - 1)
06:18, 2 - 0, Quillan J. (G), Nylander A. (A), Valis B. (A2)
07:17, 3 - 0, Quillan J. (G), Lettieri V. (A), Shaw L. (A2)
13:21, 4 - 0, Chadwick N. (G), Nylander A. (A), Quillan J. (A2)
16:33, 5 - 0, Johnstone M. (G), Thrun H. (A), Johnson R. (A2)
17:13, 5 - 1, Bourgault X. (G), Daoust P. (A),
3rd Period (1 - 0)
01:04, 6 - 1, Quillan J. (G), Chadwick N. (A), Villeneuve W. (A2)
Preview
A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ AHL (Play Offs: ) and 6).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 3.
Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
Belleville may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.
In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
We predict that Toronto will win today's game, with odds of 2.18.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 58:56. (average 2.9:2.8).
Including home matches between the teams, Toronto won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 30:25. (average 3.3:2.8).
Last Results with these Odds
Toronto Marlies - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 37.88%, but this team recently wins 32% of matches with these odds.
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Akhtyamov A. (G) 
Shepard H. (G) 
Chadwick N. 
Nylander A. 
Hamara T. 
Thomson L. 
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