The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Toronto Marlies 45%
Draw 22.3%
Belleville Senators 32.7%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
39.3%
21.4%
39.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
36.1%
22.5%
41.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toronto Marlies has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Toronto Marlies's performance.
Belleville Senators has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Belleville Senators might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toronto Marlies than the current prediction. (-8.9%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Toronto Marlies that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Belleville Senators than the current prediction. (+8.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Belleville Senators could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Toronto Marlies - Belleville Senators Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
70. Akhtyamov A. (G)
30. Johansson J. (G)
25. Borgesi V.
2. Andonovski M.
90. Brisson B.
17. Bakke Olsen E.
58. Chadwick N.
19. Blais S.
38. Danford B.
58. Bolduc S.
37. Haymes L.
16. Boucher T.
98. Holinka M.
13. Bourgault X.
62. Hundley H.
51. Bowers S.
57. Johnstone M. (A)
10. Daoust P. (A)
81. Joshua D.
8. Duarte M.
36. Mermis D. (A)
29. Ellinas L.
51. Myers P.
12. Halttunen K.
61. Pezzetta M.
9. Hamara T.
26. Raty A.
14. Harrington S. (A)
54. Rybinski H.
32. Pettersson O.
11. Shaw L. (C)
5. Stanley H.
42. Sim L.
6. Suzuki R.
77. Tverberg R.
53. Tomasino P. (A)
39. Valis B.
44. Toure D.
Substitutes
80. Appleby K. (G)
31. Parsons J. (G)
Key Events of the Match
1st Period (0 - 1)
08:03, 0 - 1, Blais S. (G), Stanley H. (A),
2nd Period (1 - 1)
09:06, 0 - 2, Tomasino P. (G), Suzuki R. (A), Hamara T. (A2)
10:50, 1 - 2, Borgesi V. (G), Raty A. (A),
3rd Period (1 - 2)
18:36, 1 - 3, Boucher T. (G), Bakke Olsen E. (A), Bowers S. (A2)
19:12, 2 - 3, Brisson B. (G), Borgesi V. (A), Shaw L. (A2)
19:18, 2 - 4, Harrington S. (G), Toure D. (A), Daoust P. (A2)
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 3.
Toronto is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 4 wins).
Belleville has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
Belleville may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
Recently, Toronto has faced a series of away games on the road.
Recently, Belleville has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.
In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.
Our forecast points to a victory for Toronto in today's match, at odds of 2.34.
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Toronto has recorded 12 wins, 0 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 63:61 (averaging 3.2:3.1 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Toronto against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with 32:23 goals (averaging 3.6:2.6 per game).
Outrights of AHL for now
Toronto Marlies: 5.48% Belleville Senators: 1.98%
Last Results with these Odds
Toronto Marlies - the odds 2.38 are the expected chance of winning is 39.28%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.
Belleville Senators - the odds 2.38 are the expected chance of winning is 39.28%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.
Watch
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Akhtyamov A. (G) 
Johansson J. (G) 
Borgesi V. 
Andonovski M. 
Bakke Olsen E. 
Holinka M. 
Halttunen K. 
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