Match Info

AHL

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday

Location: CAA Arena (Belleville, ON)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	Flohockey


	Belleville Senators		Toronto Marlies

	1	X	2
	2.45	4.2	2.15	Watch
	2.46	4.17	2.36	Watch
	2.4	3.9	2.3
	2.46	4.17	2.36	Watch
	2.35	4	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↑ (2.25)	4.09 ↑ (3.78)	2.29 ↓ (2.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Belleville Senators
37.7%

Draw
22.4%

Toronto Marlies
39.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.5%

24.1%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.7%

25.4%

33.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Belleville Senators has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Toronto Marlies has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Belleville Senators than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toronto Marlies than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Toronto Marlies, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Belleville Senators - Toronto Marlies Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:4

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Parsons J. (G)	70. Akhtyamov A. (G)
5. Bongiovanni W.	48. Baddock B. (A)
16. Boucher T.	68. Barbolini M.
13. Bourgault X.	72. Boyd T.
4. Crotty C. (A)	58. Chadwick N.
10. Daoust P.	29. Groulx B.
11. Donovan J.	43. Haymes L.
48. Gilbert D.	45. Kirwan R.
34. Halliday S.	71. Lettieri V.
14. Harrington S.	92. Nylander A.
42. Hodgson H.	56. Pare C.
24. Jenik J. (A)	26. Quillan J.
43. Kaliyev A.	83. Rifai M. (A)
15. Lycksell O.	97. Sharpe C.
32. Pettersson O.	11. Shaw L. (C)
19. Rees J.	59. Smith B.
33. Thomson L.	67. Stevens S.
44. Toure D.	3. Thrun H.
27. Washkurak K.	76. Villeneuve W.
Substitutes
40. Sogaard M. (G)	50. Peksa V. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 1)
10:06, 1 - 0, Daoust P. (G), Harrington S. (A), Kaliyev A. (A2)
14:03, 1 - 1, Lettieri V. (G), Boyd T. (A), Groulx B. (A2)
15:46, 2 - 1, Halliday S. (G), Boucher T. (A), Gilbert D. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 1)
07:52, 2 - 2, Haymes L. (G), Boyd T. (A), Barbolini M. (A2)
18:47, 3 - 2, Hodgson H. (G), Harrington S. (A),
3rd Period (3 - 1)
01:12, 4 - 2, Lycksell O. (G),
06:43, 4 - 3, Groulx B. (G), Lettieri V. (A), Shaw L. (A2)
11:00, 5 - 3, Kaliyev A. (G), Daoust P. (A),
17:43, 6 - 3, Kaliyev A. (G), Bourgault X. (A),

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 6 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ AHL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Belleville won 1.

Belleville is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Toronto has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Toronto may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Toronto has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Belleville won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 56:60. (average 2.8:3).

Including home matches between the teams, Belleville won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 30:24. (average 3:2.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Toronto Marlies - the odds 2.57 are the expected chance of winning is 35.47%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Belleville Senators
AHL
09.01.26	Toronto Marlies - Belleville Senators	6:1 ✺
03.01.26	Belleville Senators - Lehigh Valley Phantoms	1:3 ✺
31.12.25	Belleville Senators - Laval Rocket	3:4 ✺
28.12.25	Belleville Senators - Utica Comets	7:0 ✺
26.12.25	Toronto Marlies - Belleville Senators	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLLWL
- Toronto Marlies
AHL
09.01.26	Toronto Marlies - Belleville Senators	6:1 ✺
07.01.26	Toronto Marlies - Cleveland Monsters	4:5 penalties ✺
04.01.26	Toronto Marlies - Lehigh Valley Phantoms	1:6 ✺
03.01.26	Toronto Marlies - Rochester Americans	6:4 ✺
01.01.26	Toronto Marlies - Syracuse Crunch	2:1 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

AHL
09.01.26	Toronto Marlies - Belleville Senators	6:1
26.12.25	Toronto Marlies - Belleville Senators	3:2
21.12.25	Belleville Senators - Toronto Marlies	8:4
20.12.25	Toronto Marlies - Belleville Senators	4:3 OT
03.12.25	Belleville Senators - Toronto Marlies	3:4
19.11.25	Belleville Senators - Toronto Marlies	4:0
26.10.25	Toronto Marlies - Belleville Senators	4:5 penalties

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