The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Toronto Marlies 43.6%
Draw 22.6%
Chicago Wolves 33.7%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
41%
24.3%
34.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
38%
26.2%
37.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toronto Marlies has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)
Chicago Wolves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toronto Marlies than the current prediction. (-5.6%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Toronto Marlies that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chicago Wolves than the current prediction. (+3.7%)
Toronto Marlies - Chicago Wolves Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
70. Akhtyamov A. (G)
30. Primeau C. (G)
33. Benning M.
22. Brind'Amour S.
53. Cowan E.
2. Fensore D.
38. Danford B.
52. Foote C.
29. Groulx B.
10. Gunler N.
43. Haymes L.
5. Legault C.
57. Johnstone M. (A)
82. Nadeau B.
71. Lettieri V.
79. Neuchev V.
36. Mermis D. (A)
9. Nystrom J.
92. Nylander A.
15. Pavlychev N.
56. Pare C.
12. Philp N.
61. Pezzetta M.
93. Robidas J. (A)
26. Quillan J.
27. Ryabkin I.
83. Rifai M.
8. Seeley R. (A)
11. Shaw L. (C)
23. Slavin J. (C)
42. Sim L.
14. Sorum F. U.
3. Thrun H.
6. Suzuki R.
77. Tverberg R.
4. Valimaki J.
76. Villeneuve W.
41. Vierling E.
Substitutes
35. Hildeby D. (G)
35. Miftakhov A. (G)
Key Events of the Match
1st Period (1 - 2)
08:09, 0 - 1, Sorum F. U. (G), Foote C. (A),
17:49, 0 - 2, Slavin J. (G), Sorum F. U. (A), Philp N. (A2)
19:32, 1 - 2, Sim L. (G), Benning M. (A), Pezzetta M. (A2)
2nd Period (3 - 1)
03:04, 2 - 2, Groulx B. (G), Cowan E. (A), Villeneuve W. (A2)
15:26, 3 - 2, Quillan J. (G), Cowan E. (A), Tverberg R. (A2)
16:49, 4 - 2, Lettieri V. (G), Villeneuve W. (A), Cowan E. (A2)
19:54, 4 - 3, Sorum F. U. (G), Suzuki R. (A), Philp N. (A2)
3rd Period (0 - 0)
Preview
Toronto Marlies leads series 3-1. Fourth leg.
The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ AHL (Play Offs: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ AHL (Play Offs: ))
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 4.
Toronto is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).
Chicago's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
We predict that Toronto will win today's game, with odds of 2.25.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 14 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 67:46. (average 3.4:2.3).
Including home matches between the teams, Toronto won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 29:24. (average 2.9:2.4).
Last Results with these Odds
Toronto Marlies - the odds 2.28 are the expected chance of winning is 41.04%, but this team recently wins 53% of matches with these odds.
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Akhtyamov A. (G) 
Primeau C. (G) 
Benning M. 
Gunler N. 
Valimaki J. 
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