Match Info

NHL

Date: 8 October 2026, Thursday

Location: T-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas, NV)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Czech-republic	Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Vinter
Germany	NHL.tv
Mexico	Disney+
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN USA, ESPN+, MSG Sportsnet, MSG, NESN Plus, SportsNet Pittsburgh
Venezuela	Disney+
World	NHL.tv


	Vegas Golden Knights		Toronto Maple Leafs

	1	X	2
	1.86	4.5	3.2	Watch
	1.91	4.20	3.10
	2.02	4.3	3.15
	2	4.27	3.17
	1.96	4.3	3.22	Watch
	1.99	4.25	3.15
	1.92	4.32	3.38
	1.95	4.3	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (1.96)	4.31 ↑ (4.2)	3.18 ↑ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vegas Golden Knights
48.4%

Draw
21.9%

Toronto Maple Leafs
29.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.9%

22.3%

29.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.6%

22.9%

30.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vegas Golden Knights has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Toronto Maple Leafs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vegas Golden Knights than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toronto Maple Leafs than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Vegas Golden Knights - Toronto Maple Leafs Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Vegas will win (votes: 6 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vegas: 45% – 100%.

New Consensus by Tipsters:

1X2 - VGS Golden Knights (1.62) (votes: 91%) ⭐ Best Value.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3

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Lineups

Line 1
33. Hill A. (G)	72. Bobrovsky S. (G)
27. Theodore S.	8. Tanev C.
3. McNabb B.	22. McCabe J.
61. Stone M. (C)	96. Roslovic J.
9. Eichel J. (A)	34. Matthews A. (C)
49. Barbashev I.	86. Marchenko K.
Line 2
4. Andersson R.	43. Raddysh D.
29. Wotherspoon P.	44. Rielly M. (A)
93. Marner M.	88. Nylander W.
71. Karlsson W. (A)	91. Tavares J. (A)
21. Howden B.	53. Cowan E.
Line 3
15. Hanifin N.	28. Stecher T.
5. Lauzon J.	95. Ekman-Larsson O.
36. Lavoie R.	15. Sissons C.
48. Hertl T.	20. Paul N.
24. Connelly T.	92. McKenna G.
Line 4
17. Gatcomb M.	29. Groulx B.
26. Dowd N.	73. Blueger T.
42. Bowman B.	24. Duhaime B.
Substitutes
79. Hart C. (G)	41. Stolarz A. (G)
Coaches
. Craig R.	. Hiller J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 3)
00:34, 0 - 1, Roslovic J. (G), Matthews A. (A), Marchenko K. (A2)
03:20, 0 - 2, Cowan E. (G), Tanev C. (A),
08:37, 0 - 3, Paul N. (G), Raddysh D. (A), McKenna G. (A2)
17:36, 1 - 3, Stone M. (G), Eichel J. (A), Barbashev I. (A2)
18:17, McKenna G. (2 min),
2nd Period (2 - 0)
01:12, 2 - 3, Howden B. (G), Marner M. (A), Karlsson W. (A2)
03:58, 3 - 3, Eichel J. (Penalty Shot),
05:09, Ekman-Larsson O. (2 min),
13:09, Ekman-Larsson O. (2 min),
17:27, Stone M. (2 min),
3rd Period (0 - 0)
08:58, Groulx B. (2 min),
Overtime (0 - 0)
Penalties (2 - 1)
1, Bowman B. (Penalty Shot),
1, Marchenko K. (Penalty Shot),
2, Eichel J. (Penalty Shot),
2, Matthews A. (Penalty Shot),
3, Theodore S. (Penalty Shot),
3, Nylander W. (Penalty Shot),
4, Marner M. (Penalty Shot),
4, McKenna G. (Penalty Shot),
5, Connelly T. (Penalty Shot),
5, Tavares J. (Penalty Shot),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vegas won 4.

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Vegas may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Toronto has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Vegas holding a narrow advantage.

Confirmed absences for Vegas: Pietrangelo A. (Hip Injury).

Confirmed absences for Toronto: Domi M. (Back Injury) Joshua D. (Abdominal strain) Merzlikins E. (Shoulder Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Vegas: Lavoie R. (Injury) Olofsson V. (Injury).

In the last 16 head-to-head meetings, Vegas has recorded 8 wins, 0 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 54:54 (averaging 3.4:3.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Vegas against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with 33:30 goals (averaging 4.1:3.8 per game).

Outrights of NHL for now

Vegas Golden Knights: 7.11% Toronto Maple Leafs: 2.45%

Last Results with these Odds

Toronto Maple Leafs - the odds 3.15 are the expected chance of winning is 29.79%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vegas Golden Knights
NHL
06.10.26	Seattle Kraken - Vegas Golden Knights	2:6 ✺
04.10.26	Vancouver Canucks - Vegas Golden Knights	2:3 ✺
02.10.26	Vegas Golden Knights - Anaheim Ducks	3:4 ✺
29.09.26	Vegas Golden Knights - Chicago Blackhawks	5:2 ✺
26.09.26	Vegas Golden Knights - San Jose Sharks	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WWLWL
- Toronto Maple Leafs
NHL
06.10.26	Toronto Maple Leafs - Nashville Predators	5:4 OT ✺
03.10.26	Toronto Maple Leafs - Ottawa Senators	2:3 ✺
30.09.26	Toronto Maple Leafs - New York Islanders	2:1 ✺
29.09.26	Toronto Maple Leafs - Montreal Canadiens	2:3 ✺
23.09.26	Ottawa Senators - Toronto Maple Leafs	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

NHL
23.01.26	Toronto Maple Leafs - Vegas Golden Knights	3:6
15.01.26	Vegas Golden Knights - Toronto Maple Leafs	6:5 OT
05.03.25	Vegas Golden Knights - Toronto Maple Leafs	5:2
20.11.24	Toronto Maple Leafs - Vegas Golden Knights	3:0
27.02.24	Toronto Maple Leafs - Vegas Golden Knights	2:6
22.02.24	Vegas Golden Knights - Toronto Maple Leafs	3:7
08.11.22	Toronto Maple Leafs - Vegas Golden Knights	3:4 OT

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