Match Info

SM-sarja U20

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday


	Ässät U20		KalPa U20

	1	X	2
	1.88	4.38	2.95
	1.81	4.3	3.27
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (1.99)	4.34 ↓ (4.38)	3.11 ↑ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.25

The best margin for this event is 9.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ässät U20
49.5%

Draw
21.1%

KalPa U20
29.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.3%

21.1%

32.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.7%

20.9%

32.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ässät U20 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

KalPa U20 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ässät U20 than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for KalPa U20 than the current prediction. (+3%)

Ässät U20 - KalPa U20 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3

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Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
2nd Period (0 - 2)
00:43, 0 - 1, Miilunpohja R. (G), Pulkkanen A. (A), Happonen E. (A2)
02:40, 0 - 2, Niskanen M. (G), Hirvonen D. (A), Timofejev D. (A2)
3rd Period (6 - 1)
03:52, 0 - 3, Timofejev D. (G), Hintikka J. (A), Sundgren M. (A2)
05:01, 1 - 3, Aijala E. (G), Kim A. (A), Heinila E. (A2)
07:50, 2 - 3, Kamarainen R. (G), Kim A. (A), Heinila E. (A2)
10:24, 3 - 3, Kim A. (G), Saarimaki M. (A),
13:43, 4 - 3, Kim A. (G), Heinila E. (A), Aijala E. (A2)
14:28, 5 - 3, Kim A. (G), Aijala E. (A),
19:31, 6 - 3, Kamarainen R. (G),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ässät U20 won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Recently, the opponents have had a series of away games.

Ässät U20 will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Ässät U20 will win today's game, with odds of 2.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ässät U20 won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 69:66. (average 3.5:3.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Ässät U20 won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 24:33. (average 3:4.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Ässät U20 - the odds 1.99 are the expected chance of winning is 46.28%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ässät U20
Finnish SM-sarja U20
20.09.25	HIFK U20 - Ässät U20	4:3 ✺
13.09.25	TPS U20 - Ässät U20	0:1 ✺
12.09.25	Lukko U20 - Ässät U20	2:1 penalties ✺
06.09.25	JYP U20 - Ässät U20	2:3 ✺
05.09.25	Ässät U20 - Lukko U20	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 LWLWW
- KalPa U20
Finnish SM-sarja U20
20.09.25	Vaasan Sport U20 - KalPa U20	3:6 ✺
13.09.25	SaiPa U20 - KalPa U20	6:4 ✺
12.09.25	KalPa U20 - Kärpät U20	3:4 ✺
06.09.25	HPK U20 - KalPa U20	6:3 ✺
05.09.25	HIFK U20 - KalPa U20	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-sarja U20
15.03.25	KalPa U20 - Ässät U20	2:0
12.03.25	Ässät U20 - KalPa U20	3:6
28.09.24	KalPa U20 - Ässät U20	2:3
21.09.24	Ässät U20 - KalPa U20	3:4
01.02.24	KalPa U20 - Ässät U20	3:4 OT
27.01.24	KalPa U20 - Ässät U20	0:1
18.09.22	KalPa U20 - Ässät U20	1:4

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