Match Info

LIGHTWEIGHT - MEN: UFC BMF Title (World)

Date: 13 April 2024, Saturday

Location: T-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas, NV)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max Sport 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Hungary	Sport 1
Norway	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV
Slovakia	Voyo
Sweden	Viaplay
Ukraine	Setanta Sports


	Justin Gaethje		Max Holloway

	1	2
	1.62	2.38
	1.61	2.35
	1.51	2.64
	1.67	2.29
	1.67	2.29
	1.62	2.3
	1.59	2.35
	1.57	2.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↑ (1.49)	2.38 ↓ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Justin Gaethje
59.6%

Max Holloway
40.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.8%

36.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Justin Gaethje has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Max Holloway has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Justin Gaethje - Max Holloway Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Gaethje will win (votes: 14 - 66.7%). Holloway will win (votes: 7 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gaethje: 46.5% – 86.9%.

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Preview

Gaethje Justin defending title.

Gaethje will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the fighters did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Justin Gaethje
MMA
30.07.23	Dustin Poirier - Justin Gaethje	Gaethje J. - 2nd Round KO ✺
18.03.23	Justin Gaethje - Rafael Fiziev	Gaethje J. win ✺
08.05.22	Charles Oliveira - Justin Gaethje	Oliveira C. - 1st Round TKO ✺
06.11.21	Justin Gaethje - Michael Chandler	Gaethje J. win ✺
24.10.20	Khabib Nurmagomedov - Justin Gaethje	Nurmagomedov K. win Nurmagomedov K. - Round 2 / 1:34 Submission (Triangle choke) ✺
- Max Holloway
MMA
26.08.23	Max Holloway - Chan Sung Jung	Holloway M. - 3rd Round KO ✺
15.04.23	Max Holloway - Arnold Allen	Holloway M. win ✺
02.07.22	Alex Volkanovski - Max Holloway	Volkanovski A. win ✺
13.11.21	Max Holloway - Yair Rodriguez	Holloway M. win ✺
16.01.21	Max Holloway - Calvin Kattar	Holloway M. win Holloway M. - Round 5 / 5:00 Points ✺

Justin Gaethje - Max Holloway: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide