Match Info

LIGHTWEIGHT - MEN: UFC (World)

Date: 8 March 2025, Saturday

Location: T-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas, NV)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	ESPN 2
Bulgaria	Max Sport 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	RMC Sport 1
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 8
Iceland	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Polsat Sport 1
Portugal	Sport TV1
Slovakia	Voyo
Sweden	Viaplay
Ukraine	Setanta Sports+
United-kingdom	TNT Sports 1


	Justin Gaethje		Rafael Fiziev

	1	2
	2.4	1.59
	2.25	1.67
	2.2	1.68
	2.35	1.65
			Watch
	2.2	1.67
	2.21	1.66
	2.2	1.68
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↑ (2.04)	1.66 ↓ (1.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Justin Gaethje
42.3%

Rafael Fiziev
57.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.8%

53.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Justin Gaethje has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Rafael Fiziev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	0%	9.1%

Justin Gaethje - Rafael Fiziev Predictions

Users Predictions: Justin Gaethje will win (29 of 32 users predict this - 90.63%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.53% – 100%.

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Preview

Fiziev will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Gaethje won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Justin Gaethje
MMA
08.03.25	Justin Gaethje - Daniel Hooker	Canceled ✺
13.04.24	Justin Gaethje - Max Holloway	Holloway M. - 5th Round KO ✺
30.07.23	Dustin Poirier - Justin Gaethje	Gaethje J. - 2nd Round KO ✺
18.03.23	Justin Gaethje - Rafael Fiziev	Gaethje J. win ✺
08.05.22	Charles Oliveira - Justin Gaethje	Oliveira C. - 1st Round TKO ✺
- Rafael Fiziev
MMA
23.09.23	Rafael Fiziev - Mateusz Gamrot	Gamrot M. - 2nd Round TKO ✺
18.03.23	Justin Gaethje - Rafael Fiziev	Gaethje J. win ✺
09.07.22	Rafael dos Anjos - Rafael Fiziev	Fiziev R. - 5th Round TKO ✺
05.03.22	Rafael dos Anjos - Rafael Fiziev	Canceled ✺
05.12.21	Brad Riddell - Rafael Fiziev	Fiziev R. - 3rd Round KO ✺

Latest Head to Head

MMA
18.03.23	Justin Gaethje - Rafael Fiziev	Gaethje J. win

Justin Gaethje - Rafael Fiziev: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide