Match Info

LIGHTWEIGHT - MEN: UFC BMF Title

Date: 20 July 2025, Sunday

Location: Smoothie King Center (New Orleans, LA)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 2
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	RMC Sport 1
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 8
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	Sport TV1
Slovakia	Voyo
Sweden	Viaplay
Ukraine	Setanta Sports
United-kingdom	TNT Sports 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Max Holloway		Dustin Poirier

	1	2
	1.73	2.1
	1.8	2.05
	1.83	2
	1.82	2.08
			Watch
	1.73	2.1
	1.82	1.97
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↓ (1.82)	2.05 ↑ (1.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Max Holloway
53.4%

Dustin Poirier
46.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.1%

47.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Max Holloway has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Dustin Poirier has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	0%	30%

Max Holloway - Dustin Poirier Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Holloway will win (votes: 14 - 70%). Poirier will win (votes: 6 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Holloway: 49.9% – 90.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Holloway (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Poirier (votes: 5 - 41.7%).

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Preview

Holloway Max defending title.

The chances of victory for both fighters are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Holloway won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Max Holloway
MMA
26.10.24	Ilia Topuria - Max Holloway	Topuria I. - 3rd Round TKO ✺
13.04.24	Justin Gaethje - Max Holloway	Holloway M. - 5th Round KO ✺
26.08.23	Max Holloway - Chan Sung Jung	Holloway M. - 3rd Round KO ✺
15.04.23	Max Holloway - Arnold Allen	Holloway M. win ✺
02.07.22	Alex Volkanovski - Max Holloway	Volkanovski A. win ✺
- Dustin Poirier
MMA
02.06.24	Islam Makhachev - Dustin Poirier	Makhachev I. - 5th Round TKO ✺
09.03.24	Dustin Poirier - Benoit Saint-Denis	Poirier D. - 2nd Round KO ✺
30.07.23	Dustin Poirier - Justin Gaethje	Gaethje J. - 2nd Round KO ✺
12.11.22	Dustin Poirier - Michael Chandler	Poirier D. - 3rd Round TKO ✺
12.12.21	Charles Oliveira - Dustin Poirier	Oliveira C. - 3rd Round TKO ✺

Latest Head to Head

MMA
14.04.19	Max Holloway - Dustin Poirier	Poirier D. win Poirier D. - Round 5 / 5:00 Points

Max Holloway - Dustin Poirier: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide