Match Info

NRL - Round 8

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: AAMI Park (Melbourne)

Referee: Gee A. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, NRL
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Action


	Melbourne Storm		South Sydney Rabbitohs

	1	X	2
	1.6	23	2.4
	1.6	18	2.6
	1.54	22.61	2.62	Watch
	1.5	23	2.6
	1.55	17	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↓ (1.58)	20.72 ↓ (22.41)	2.56 ↑ (2.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 52.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne Storm
59.4%

Draw
4.5%

South Sydney Rabbitohs
36.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

58.8%

4.2%

37%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.7%

4.5%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne Storm has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

South Sydney Rabbitohs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne Storm than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for South Sydney Rabbitohs than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Melbourne Storm - South Sydney Rabbitohs Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 29:24

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Faalogo S.	1. Dufty M.
2. Warbrick W.	2. Johnston A.
3. Howarth J.	3. Mitchell L.
4. Meaney N.	4. Wighton J.
5. Waitere M.	5. Graham C.
6. Munster C.	6. Walker C.
7. Hughes J.	7. Humphreys J.
8. Utoikamanu S.	8. Tatola T.
9. Grant H. (C)	9. Garlick B.
10. King J.	10. Keppie S.
11. Chan J.	11. Smith B.
12. Clarke C.	12. Duncan T.
13. Loiero T.	13. Murray C. (C)
Substitutes
14. Wishart T.	14. Mamouzelos P.
15. MacDonald A.	15. Hubner L.
16. Blore S.	16. Sullivan J.
17. Moale D.	17. Koloamatangi K.
19. Peel H.	18. Aitken E.
21. Pahulu J.	22. Kosi E.
Coaches
. Bellamy C.	. Bennett W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 24)
8', Johnston A. (Try),
10', Mitchell L. (Missed Conversion),
22', Johnston A. (Try),
23', Mitchell L. (Conversion Goal),
25', Graham C. (Try),
27', Mitchell L. (Missed Conversion),
29', Dufty M. (Try),
30', Mitchell L. (Missed Conversion),
35', Duncan T. (Try),
36', Mitchell L. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (6 - 24)
55', Aitken E. (Try),
56', Mitchell L. (Missed Conversion),
62', Duncan T. (Try),
63', Mitchell L. (Conversion Goal),
66', Graham C. (Try),
68', Mitchell L. (Conversion Goal),
69', Mitchell L. (Penalty Goal),
69', Faalogo S. (Try),
70', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
78', Duncan T. (Try),
79', Mitchell L. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 15 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 4.

Melbourne is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

South Sydney has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Melbourne may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, South Sydney has had a series of home games.

Melbourne is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 17 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 510:318. (average 25.5:15.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 277:164. (average 27.7:16.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne Storm
Australian NRL
17.04.26	Canberra Raiders - Melbourne Storm	26:22 ✺
11.04.26	Melbourne Storm - New Zealand Warriors	14:38 ✺
03.04.26	Penrith Panthers - Melbourne Storm	50:10 ✺
28.03.26	North Queensland Cowboys - Melbourne Storm	28:24 ✺
20.03.26	Melbourne Storm - Brisbane Broncos	14:18 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- South Sydney Rabbitohs
Australian NRL
18.04.26	South Sydney Rabbitohs - St. George Illawarra Dragons	30:12 ✺
11.04.26	South Sydney Rabbitohs - Canberra Raiders	34:36 ✺
03.04.26	South Sydney Rabbitohs - Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs	32:24 ✺
21.03.26	South Sydney Rabbitohs - Wests Tigers	20:16 ✺
13.03.26	Sydney Roosters - South Sydney Rabbitohs	26:18 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Australian NRL
21.06.25	South Sydney Rabbitohs - Melbourne Storm	24:25 OT
25.04.25	Melbourne Storm - South Sydney Rabbitohs	24:16
08.08.24	South Sydney Rabbitohs - Melbourne Storm	16:28
25.04.24	Melbourne Storm - South Sydney Rabbitohs	54:20
06.05.23	Melbourne Storm - South Sydney Rabbitohs	12:28
31.03.23	South Sydney Rabbitohs - Melbourne Storm	10:18
23.07.22	South Sydney Rabbitohs - Melbourne Storm	24:12

Melbourne Storm - South Sydney Rabbitohs: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide