The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Penrith Panthers 68%
Draw 4.3%
Melbourne Storm 27.8%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
59.8%
4.3%
36%
Our Initial ML Estimation
59%
4.4%
36.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Penrith Panthers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Penrith Panthers's performance.
Melbourne Storm has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Melbourne Storm might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Penrith Panthers than the current prediction. (-9%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Penrith Panthers that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne Storm than the current prediction. (+8.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Melbourne Storm could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Penrith Panthers - Melbourne Storm Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 27:18
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Edwards D.
1. Faalogo S.
2. Jenkins T.
2. Warbrick W.
3. Alamoti P.
5. Meaney N.
4. McLean C.
6. Munster C.
5. To'o B.
7. Hughes J.
6. Talagi B.
8. Utoikamanu S.
7. Cleary N.
9. Grant H.
8. Leota M.
10. King J.
10. Smith L.
11. Chan J.
11. Papali'i I.
13. Loiero T.
12. Martin L.
15. Clarke C.
13. Yeo I.
19. Tuimalatu-Brown S.
19. Lussick F.
21. Waitere M.
Substitutes
14. Cogger J.
12. MacDonald A.
15. Phillips B.
14. Wishart T.
16. Sorensen S.
17. Moale D.
17. Garner L.
18. Hetherington J.
18. Tago I.
22. Conn P.
26. Scott B.
27. Vaalepu L.
Coaches
. Cleary I.
. Bellamy C.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (26 - 6)
5', Martin L. (Try),
7', Cleary N. (Conversion Goal),
11', Lussick F. (Try),
12', Cleary N. (Missed Conversion),
15', Waitere M. (Try),
16', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
22', Jenkins T. (Try),
23', Cleary N. (Missed Conversion),
25', Cleary N. (Try),
27', Cleary N. (Conversion Goal),
40', McLean C. (Try),
40', Cleary N. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (24 - 4)
43', To'o B. (Try),
45', Cleary N. (Conversion Goal),
59', Garner L. (Try),
61', Cleary N. (Conversion Goal),
67', Faalogo S. (Try),
68', Meaney N. (Missed Conversion),
72', Edwards D. (Try),
73', Cleary N. (Conversion Goal),
77', Jenkins T. (Try),
77', Alamoti P. (Conversion Goal),
Preview
The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Penrith won 1.
Penrith is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).
In recent matches, Melbourne has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
In this match, Penrith is the team to beat.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Penrith won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 327:383. (average 16.4:19.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Penrith won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 159:154. (average 17.7:17.1).
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Edwards D. 
Faalogo S. 
Warbrick W. 
To'o B. 
Chan J. 
Moale D. 
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