Match Info

NRL - Round 7

Date: 17 April 2026, Friday

Location: GIO Stadium (Canberra)

Referee: Gough P. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Fox League, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, NRL
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ


	Canberra Raiders		Melbourne Storm

	1	X	2
	2.1	23	1.75
	2.25	18	1.78
	2.17	20.12	1.77	Watch
	2.1	19	1.73
	2.13	21	1.78
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↓ (2.46)	20.22 ↓ (22)	1.76 ↑ (1.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 47.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Canberra Raiders
43%

Draw
4.6%

Melbourne Storm
52.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.7%

4.2%

58.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.3%

4.2%

58.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Canberra Raiders has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Canberra Raiders's performance.

Melbourne Storm has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Melbourne Storm might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Canberra Raiders than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Canberra Raiders that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne Storm than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Melbourne Storm could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Canberra Raiders - Melbourne Storm Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 22:26

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Weekes K.	1. Faalogo S.
2. Kris S.	2. Warbrick W.
3. Sasagi S.	3. Howarth J.
4. Timoko M.	4. Meaney N.
5. Stuart J.	5. Waitere M.
6. Strange E.	6. Munster C.
7. Sanders E.	7. Hughes J.
9. Starling T.	8. Utoikamanu S.
10. Tapine J. (C)	9. Grant H. (C)
11. Young H.	10. King J.
13. Horsburgh C.	11. Chan J.
15. Hosking Z.	12. Clarke C.
16. Mariota A.	13. Loiero T.
Substitutes
8. Papalii J.	14. Wishart T.
12. Martin N.	15. MacDonald A.
14. Brailey J.	16. Hetherington J.
17. Smithies M.	17. Moale D.
18. Laurie D.	18. Blore S.
19. Roddy J.	19. Peel H.
Coaches
. Stuart R.	. Bellamy C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (12 - 16)
5', Sasagi S. (Try),
7', Sanders E. (Conversion Goal),
9', Horsburgh C. (Try),
10', Sanders E. (Conversion Goal),
12', Faalogo S. (Try),
13', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
16', Warbrick W. (Try),
17', Meaney N. (Missed Conversion),
26', Meaney N. (Try),
28', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (14 - 6)
45', Strange E. (Try),
46', Sanders E. (Missed Conversion),
51', Timoko M. (Try),
53', Sanders E. (Conversion Goal),
57', Sanders E. (Penalty Goal),
70', Sanders E. (Penalty Goal),
74', Meaney N. (Try),
75', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 15 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Canberra won 3.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Canberra won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 304:438. (average 15.2:21.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Canberra won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 118:140. (average 16.9:20).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Canberra Raiders
Australian NRL
11.04.26	South Sydney Rabbitohs - Canberra Raiders	34:36 ✺
05.04.26	Newcastle Knights - Canberra Raiders	32:12 ✺
29.03.26	Canberra Raiders - Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks	22:34 ✺
19.03.26	Canberra Raiders - Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs	10:14 ✺
13.03.26	New Zealand Warriors - Canberra Raiders	40:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLLLL
- Melbourne Storm
Australian NRL
11.04.26	Melbourne Storm - New Zealand Warriors	14:38 ✺
03.04.26	Penrith Panthers - Melbourne Storm	50:10 ✺
28.03.26	North Queensland Cowboys - Melbourne Storm	28:24 ✺
20.03.26	Melbourne Storm - Brisbane Broncos	14:18 ✺
14.03.26	St. George Illawarra Dragons - Melbourne Storm	20:46 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NRL
13.02.26	Canberra Raiders - Melbourne Storm	32:6
04.05.25	Melbourne Storm - Canberra Raiders	18:20 OT
29.06.24	Melbourne Storm - Canberra Raiders	16:6
13.08.23	Melbourne Storm - Canberra Raiders	48:2
10.09.22	Melbourne Storm - Canberra Raiders	20:28
17.07.22	Melbourne Storm - Canberra Raiders	16:20
09.04.22	Canberra Raiders - Melbourne Storm	16:30

Canberra Raiders - Melbourne Storm: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide