Match Info
NRL - Round 5Date: 5 April 2026, SundayLocation: McDonald Jones Stadium (Newcastle)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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 Australia | Fox League, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, NRL |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3 |
 New-zealand | SKY Go NZ |
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Newcastle Knights |
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Canberra Raiders |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 48.50
- The most likely Handicap: 2 (-4)
- The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Newcastle Knights
39.8% | Draw
4.2% | Canberra Raiders
56% |
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML EstimationAnalysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:Newcastle Knights has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)Canberra Raiders has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newcastle Knights than the current prediction. (-0.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Canberra Raiders than the current prediction. (-0.4%)Newcastle Knights - Canberra Raiders Predictions
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Newcastle will win (votes: 9 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Newcastle: 100% – 100%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Newcastle Knights will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Expected Score (Market Odds): 22:26 
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Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
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1.  Hunt F.
| 1. Weekes K.
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2.  Young D.
| 2. Tamale S.
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3. Gagai D.
| 3.  Sasagi S.
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4. Best B.
| 4.  Kris S.
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5. Marzhew G.
| 5. Savage X.
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6. Sharpe F.
| 6. Strange E.
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7. Smith S.
| 7. Sanders E.
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8.  Saifiti J. (C)
| 8. Papalii J.
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9. Crossland P.
| 9. Starling T.
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10. Mooney T.
| 10. Tapine J. (C)
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11. Lucas D.
| 11. Young H.
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12. McEwen J.
| 12. Martin N.
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13. Croker M.
| 13. Horsburgh C.
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| Substitutes |
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14. Graham H.
| 14. Brailey J.
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15. Frizell T.
| 15. Hosking Z.
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16. Saulo P.
| 16. Mariota A.
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17. Cant T.
| 17. Smithies M.
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18. Gamble T.
| 18. Stewart C.
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19. De Courcey W.
| 19. Timoko M.
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| Coaches |
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. Holbrook J.
| . Stuart R.
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (10 - 6)
- 10:42, Sasagi S. (Try),
- 12:06, Sanders E. (Conversion Goal),
- 28:19, Marzhew G. (Try),
- 29:48, Smith S. (Missed Conversion),
- 32:51, Sharpe F. (Try),
- 34:19, Smith S. (Conversion Goal),
- 2nd Half (22 - 6)
- 43:09, Young D. (Try),
- 44:52, Smith S. (Missed Conversion),
- 47:42, Crossland P. (Try),
- 49:10, Smith S. (Conversion Goal),
- 68:57, Marzhew G. (Try),
- 70:35, Smith S. (Conversion Goal),
- 70:41, Strange E. (Try),
- 71:47, Sanders E. (Conversion Goal),
- 76:09, Young D. (Try),
- 77:27, Smith S. (Conversion Goal),
Preview
This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: ) and 15).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 2.Newcastle has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).Canberra is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).Newcastle may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times. Canberra might have a minor edge in this game.We predict that Newcastle will win today's game, with odds of 2.43.In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 473:504. (average 23.7:25.2).Including home matches between the teams, Newcastle won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 220:232. (average 24.4:25.8).
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Australian NRL | | | 27.07.25 | Canberra Raiders - Newcastle Knights | 44:18 | | 27.06.25 | Newcastle Knights - Canberra Raiders | 18:22 | | 07.07.24 | Canberra Raiders - Newcastle Knights | 12:16 | | 07.03.24 | Newcastle Knights - Canberra Raiders | 12:28 | | 10.09.23 | Newcastle Knights - Canberra Raiders | 30:28 OT | | 29.07.23 | Canberra Raiders - Newcastle Knights | 6:28 | | 26.03.23 | Newcastle Knights - Canberra Raiders | 24:14 |
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