Match Info

NRL - Round 18

Date: 5 July 2026, Sunday

Location: CommBank Stadium (Sydney)

Referee: Atkins G. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, NRL TV
Canada	fubo Sports Network
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 2
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Action, Sky Sports+
Usa	Fox Soccer Plus, FOX Sports 2


	Parramatta Eels		Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles

	1	X	2
	3.6	26	1.3
	3.6	20	1.35
	3.72	22.79	1.31
	3.75		1.25
	3.65	26	1.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.66 ↑ (2.94)	18.96 ↓ (23.71)	1.3 ↓ (1.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 49.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-12)

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Parramatta Eels
25%

Draw
4.8%

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles
70.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

31.6%

3.9%

64.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.7%

4.2%

60.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Parramatta Eels has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Parramatta Eels's form might have worsened.

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Parramatta Eels than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Parramatta Eels, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles than the current prediction. (-9.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Parramatta Eels - Manly Warringah Sea Eagles Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Manly-Warringah (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 19:31

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Iongi I.	1. Trbojevic T. (C)
2. Kelly B.	2. Saab J.
3. Samrani J.	3. Faulalo C.
4. Russell S.	4. Garrick R.
5. Addo-Carr J.	5. Hopoate L.
6. Volkman R.	6. Walsh J.
7. Pezet J.	7. Fogarty J.
9. Da Silva T.	8. Paseka T.
10. Williams J. (C)	9. Simpkin J.
11. Tuilagi K.	11. Waddell C.
12. Kautoga K.	12. Trbojevic B.
13. De Belin J.	13. Trbojevic J.
15. Tuivaiti S.	17. Laiafi S.
Substitutes
14. Walker D.	10. Hetherington K.
16. Brown T.	14. Feledy J.
17. Edwards H.	15. Brown N.
18. Papalii J.	16. Bullemor E.
19. Guymer C.	18. Schoupp A.
22. Mataele T.	19. Muagututia Z.
Coaches
. Ryles J.	. Foran K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (6 - 8)
7', Fogarty J. (Penalty Goal),
26', Volkman R. (Try),
27', Pezet J. (Conversion Goal),
36', Hopoate L. (Try),
37', Fogarty J. (Missed Conversion),
40+1', Fogarty J. (Penalty Goal),
2nd Half (17 - 6)
43', Tuilagi K. (Try),
44', Pezet J. (Missed Conversion),
45', Walsh J. (Try),
47', Fogarty J. (Conversion Goal),
53', Iongi I. (Try),
54', Pezet J. (Conversion Goal),
71', Pezet J. (Try),
73', Da Silva T. (Conversion Goal),
80', Pezet J. (Drop Goal),

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 15 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Parramatta won 2.

Parramatta has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Manly-Warringah's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Manly-Warringah is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Parramatta won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 428:474. (average 21.4:23.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Parramatta won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 225:137. (average 25:15.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Parramatta Eels
Australian NRL
25.06.26	Parramatta Eels - South Sydney Rabbitohs	12:32 ✺
13.06.26	Parramatta Eels - Canberra Raiders	15:12 ✺
08.06.26	Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs - Parramatta Eels	14:12 ✺
30.05.26	Newcastle Knights - Parramatta Eels	28:22 ✺
16.05.26	Parramatta Eels - Melbourne Storm	8:34 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LWLLL
- Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles
Australian NRL
27.06.26	Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - Melbourne Storm	30:4 ✺
20.06.26	Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs - Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles	13:12 OT ✺
04.06.26	Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - South Sydney Rabbitohs	28:14 ✺
29.05.26	Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks - Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles	28:22 ✺
23.05.26	Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - Gold Coast Titans	12:10 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NRL
26.04.26	Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - Parramatta Eels	33:18
23.05.25	Parramatta Eels - Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles	30:10
30.03.25	Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - Parramatta Eels	26:12
26.04.24	Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - Parramatta Eels	32:18
24.03.24	Parramatta Eels - Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles	28:24
17.06.23	Parramatta Eels - Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles	34:4
16.03.23	Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - Parramatta Eels	34:30

Parramatta Eels - Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide