Match Info

NRL - Round 13

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Location: McDonald Jones Stadium (Newcastle)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Fox League, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, NRL
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ


	Newcastle Knights		Parramatta Eels

	1	X	2
	1.24	34	4
	1.25	22	4.6
	1.21	27.4	4.7	Watch
	1.18	34	5
	1.23	23	4.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.22 ↓ (1.33)	28.08 ↑ (25.75)	4.51 ↑ (3.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 53.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-10)

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newcastle Knights
76.1%

Draw
3.3%

Parramatta Eels
20.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

69.9%

3.6%

26.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.4%

3.6%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newcastle Knights has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Newcastle Knights's performance.

Parramatta Eels has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Parramatta Eels might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newcastle Knights than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Newcastle Knights that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Parramatta Eels than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Parramatta Eels could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Newcastle Knights - Parramatta Eels Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 32:22

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ponga K. (C)	1. Iongi I.
2. Young D.	2. Kelly B.
3. Gagai D.	3. Samrani J.
4. Sharpe F.	4. Russell S.
5. Marzhew G.	5. Addo-Carr J.
6. Smith S.	6. Papalii J.
7. Brown D.	7. Volkman R.
8. Saifiti J.	8. Moretti L.
9. Crossland P.	10. Williams J. (C)
10. Mooney T.	11. Tuilagi K.
11. Lucas D.	12. Kautoga K.
12. McEwen J.	13. De Belin J.
13. Croker M.	17. Edwards H.
Substitutes
14. Graham H.	9. Da Silva T.
15. Frizell T.	14. Walker D.
16. Saulo P.	15. Guymer C.
17. Hopwood C.	16. Mataele T.
18. Cant T.	18. Twidle A.
19. Hunt F.	20. Tuivaiti S.
Coaches
. Holbrook J.	. Ryles J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (12 - 10)
3', Lucas D. (Try),
4', Ponga K. (Conversion Goal),
10', Kelly B. (Try),
11', Volkman R. (Missed Conversion),
23', Marzhew G. (Try),
24', Ponga K. (Conversion Goal),
29', Walker D. (Try),
31', Papalii J. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (16 - 12)
45', Graham H. (Try),
46', Ponga K. (Conversion Goal),
59', Lucas D. (Try),
61', Ponga K. (Conversion Goal),
64', Samrani J. (Try),
64', Papalii J. (Conversion Goal),
71', Hunt F. (Try),
72', Ponga K. (Missed Conversion),
74', Iongi I. (Try),
75', Papalii J. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 9 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Newcastle is the obvious favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 395:500. (average 19.8:25).

Including home matches between the teams, Newcastle won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 264:319. (average 20.3:24.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newcastle Knights
Australian NRL
17.05.26	Gold Coast Titans - Newcastle Knights	12:36 ✺
09.05.26	St. George Illawarra Dragons - Newcastle Knights	10:44 ✺
03.05.26	Newcastle Knights - South Sydney Rabbitohs	42:38 ✺
26.04.26	Newcastle Knights - Penrith Panthers	12:44 ✺
19.04.26	Sydney Roosters - Newcastle Knights	38:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WWWLL
- Parramatta Eels
Australian NRL
16.05.26	Parramatta Eels - Melbourne Storm	8:34 ✺
08.05.26	North Queensland Cowboys - Parramatta Eels	30:33 OT ✺
02.05.26	Parramatta Eels - New Zealand Warriors	14:36 ✺
26.04.26	Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - Parramatta Eels	33:18 ✺
19.04.26	Parramatta Eels - Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs	38:20 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NRL
07.09.25	Parramatta Eels - Newcastle Knights	66:10
16.05.25	Newcastle Knights - Parramatta Eels	6:28
14.02.25	Newcastle Knights - Parramatta Eels	18:44
29.06.24	Newcastle Knights - Parramatta Eels	34:26
28.04.23	Parramatta Eels - Newcastle Knights	43:12
17.02.23	Newcastle Knights - Parramatta Eels	14:36
24.04.22	Newcastle Knights - Parramatta Eels	2:39

Newcastle Knights - Parramatta Eels: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide