Match Info

World Cup

Date: 16 October 2026, Friday

Location: CommBank Stadium (Sydney)

Where to Watch on TV:


Germany	Magenta Sport, Sportdigital1+
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 2


	Samoa		France

	1	X	2
	1.01	22	22
	1.02	100	17
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.02 ↑ (1.01)	61 ↓ (100)	19.5 ↓ (41)

The most likely Over/Under: 59.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-20)

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Samoa
93.6%

Draw
1.6%

France
4.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

96.6%

2.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Samoa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

France has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Samoa - France Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 40:20

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tabuai-Fidow H.	1. Mourgue A.
2. To'o B.	2. Laguerre B.
3. Tago I.	3. Siegwalt L.
4. Crichton S.	4. Aispuro-Bichet G.
5. Mariner D.	5. Darrelatour L.
6. Harris-Tavita C.	6. Rouge C.
7. Luai J.	7. Fages T.
8. Molo F.	8. Navarrete R.
9. Ioelu B.	9. Garcia B.
10. Paulo J.	10. Belmas L.
11. Lemuelu C.	11. Romano A.
12. McEwen J.	12. Jussaume M.
13. Manuleleua F.	13. Bousquet J.
Substitutes
14. Tevaga J.	14. Bourouh A.
15. Leniu S.	15. Chan T.
16. Blore S.	16. Dezaria J.
17. Faalogo S.	18. Lacans T.
18. Mariota A.	19. Grossemy L.
19. Faulalo C.	20. Drodrolagi J.
Coaches
. Gardiner B.	. Frayssinous L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (34 - 4)
3', Mariner D. (Try),
5', Crichton S. (Conversion Goal),
6', Ioelu B. (Try),
7', Crichton S. (Conversion Goal),
8', McEwen J. (Try),
9', Crichton S. (Conversion Goal),
14', Faalogo S. (Try),
15', Crichton S. (Missed Conversion),
18', Tabuai-Fidow H. (Try),
20', Crichton S. (Conversion Goal),
25', Aispuro-Bichet G. (Try),
26', Mourgue A. (Missed Conversion),
37', Faalogo S. (Try),
39', Crichton S. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (44 - 0)
43', Crichton S. (Try),
45', Crichton S. (Conversion Goal),
56', Blore S. (Try),
58', Crichton S. (Conversion Goal),
64', Faalogo S. (Try),
66', Crichton S. (Missed Conversion),
68', Faalogo S. (Try),
70', Crichton S. (Missed Conversion),
71', Harris-Tavita C. (Try),
72', Crichton S. (Conversion Goal),
75', Tago I. (Try),
76', Crichton S. (Conversion Goal),
78', Molo F. (Try),
79', Crichton S. (Conversion Goal),
80', Crichton S. (Missed Penalty),
80', Ioelu B. (Try),
80', Crichton S. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

The betting markets point to Samoa as the clear and undisputed favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Samoa has recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 84:10 (averaging 42:5 goals per game).

Outrights of Rugby League World Cup for now

Samoa: 8.74% France: 0.67%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Samoa rugby league
Pacific Championships Rugby League
09.11.25	New Zealand - Samoa	36:14 ✺
26.10.25	Samoa - Tonga	34:6 ✺
19.10.25	New Zealand - Samoa	24:18 ✺
Friendly International Rugby League
02.11.24	England - Samoa	34:16 ✺
27.10.24	England - Samoa	34:18 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LWLLL
- France rugby league
Friendly International Rugby League
29.06.24	England - France	40:8 ✺
29.04.23	England - France	64:0 ✺
Rugby League World Cup
30.10.22	Samoa - France	62:4 ✺
22.10.22	England - France	42:18 ✺
17.10.22	France - Greece	34:12 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Rugby League World Cup
30.10.22	Samoa - France	62:4
11.11.13	France - Samoa	6:22

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