Match Info
Super League - Round 11Date: 16 May 2026, SaturdayLocation: York Community Stadium (York)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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Australia | Fox League |
United-kingdom | Sky Go, Superleague+ |
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York City Knights |
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Castleford Tigers |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 44.50
- The most likely Handicap: 2 (-1)
- The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
York City Knights 52.6% | Draw 4.9% | Castleford Tigers 42.5% |
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML EstimationAnalysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:York City Knights has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in York City Knights's performance.Castleford Tigers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Castleford Tigers might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for York City Knights than the current prediction. (-9.4%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with York City Knights that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castleford Tigers than the current prediction. (+8.8%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Castleford Tigers could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.York City Knights - Castleford Tigers Predictions
Users Predictions:
3 users predict this event. York will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Castleford will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Expected Score (Market Odds): 23:23 
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Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
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1. Mataafa L.
| 3. Cini Z.
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4. Wood S.
| 4. McIntosh D.
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5. Galeano S.
| 6. Asi D.
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8. Martin J.
| 7. Weaver T.
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9. McShane P.
| 11. Lane J.
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10. Vaughan P.
| 12. Mellor A. (C)
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12. Dee J. (C)
| 13. Stimson J.
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21. Buchanan K.
| 22. Qareqare J.
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27. Foster M.
| 23. Mapapalangi K.
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31. Vuniyayawa K.
| 31. Golding A.
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37. Hunter C.
| 32. Hirst G.
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38. Roberts W.
| 35. Laulu-Togagae P.
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46. Nofa
| 36. Dupree T.
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| Substitutes |
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6. Hingano A.
| 8. Atoni R.
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14. Balmforth D.
| 10. Lawler G.
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15. Va'a X.
| 14. Greacen B.
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16. Sangare J.
| 25. Hall S.
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24. Dagger W.
| 27. Robb C.
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (18 - 12)
- 6', Hirst G. (Try),
- 7', Weaver T. (Conversion Goal),
- 9', Vuniyayawa K. (Try),
- 10', Hunter C. (Conversion Goal),
- 18', Weaver T. (Penalty Goal),
- 20', Qareqare J. (Try),
- 27', Wood S. (Try),
- 28', Hunter C. (Conversion Goal),
- 35', Galeano S. (Try),
- 36', Hunter C. (Conversion Goal),
- 2nd Half (0 - 12)
- 49', Atoni R. (Try),
- 59', Greacen B. (Try),
- 60', Weaver T. (Conversion Goal),
- 63', Weaver T. (Penalty Goal),
Preview
A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 10 and 13).York is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).Castleford has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2). The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match. Recently, there has been no match between the teams.
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;