Match Info

Bunnings NPC

Date: 3 October 2025, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Eden Park (Auckland) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	22:05	Disney+
Australia	11:05	Stan Sport
Brazil	22:05	Disney+
Chile	22:05	Disney+
Colombia	20:05	Disney+
Mexico	19:05	Disney+
Peru	20:05	Disney+
Uruguay	22:05	Disney+
Venezuela	21:05	Disney+


	Auckland		Otago

	1	X	2
	2.37	21	1.57
	2.46	23	1.56
	2.32	24	1.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↓ (3)	22.67 ↑ (21)	1.58 ↑ (1.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 56.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Auckland
38.3%

Draw
4%

Otago
57.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

30.6%

4.4%

65.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31%

4.5%

64.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Auckland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Auckland's performance.

Otago has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Otago might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Auckland than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Auckland that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Otago than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Otago could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Auckland - Otago Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 27:30

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (5 - 28)
2nd Half (12 - 23)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Auckland won 2.

Auckland has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Otago is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Auckland may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Auckland has had a series of away games.

Otago is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Auckland won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 296:205. (average 32.9:22.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Auckland won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 150:82. (average 37.5:20.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Auckland Rugby
New Zealand NPC
25.09.25	Hawkes Bay - Auckland	45:28 ✺
19.09.25	Counties Manukau - Auckland	49:28 ✺
13.09.25	Auckland - Manawatu	52:29 ✺
07.09.25	Tasman - Auckland	21:29 ✺
30.08.25	Wellington - Auckland	36:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LLWWL
- Otago
New Zealand NPC
26.09.25	Otago - North Harbour	41:26 ✺
20.09.25	Canterbury - Otago	36:38 ✺
13.09.25	Otago - Taranaki	28:26 ✺
05.09.25	Otago - Northland	29:10 ✺
30.08.25	Tasman - Otago	27:31 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.9 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

New Zealand NPC
16.08.24	Otago - Auckland	27:25
27.08.22	Auckland - Otago	35:5
12.09.20	Otago - Auckland	6:38
28.09.18	Auckland - Otago	26:31
21.09.17	Otago - Auckland	34:26
01.10.16	Auckland - Otago	54:17
12.09.15	Auckland - Otago	35:29

Auckland - Otago: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide