Match Info

Top 14 - Round 23

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Jean-Dauger (Bayonne)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 5
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Premier Sports Player, Premier Sports Rugby


	Aviron Bayonnais		Bordeaux Bègles

	1	X	2
	2.5	21	1.57
	2.5	23	1.55
	2.65	23.05	1.55	Watch
	2.52	17	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↓ (3.03)	21.01 ↓ (21.35)	1.56 ↑ (1.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 58.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aviron Bayonnais
36.3%

Draw
4.4%

Bordeaux Bègles
59.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.9%

4.4%

64.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aviron Bayonnais has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Aviron Bayonnais's performance.

Bordeaux Bègles has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Bordeaux Bègles might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Aviron Bayonnais - Bordeaux Bègles Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Bordeaux Bègles will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 27:32

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bordelai A.	1. Perchaud M.
2. Martin L.	2. Lamothe M.
3. Tagi L.	3. Tameifuna B.
4. Johnson E.	4. Palu B.
5. Moon A.	5. Cazeaux C.
6. Fischer A.	6. Bochaton P.
7. Capilla E. (C)	7. Woki C.
8. Bruni R.	8. Vergnes-Taillefer B.
9. Jantjies H.	9. Lucu M. (C)
10. Segonds J.	10. Reus H.
11. Carreras M.	11. Mousques X.
12. Mori F.	12. Moefana Y.
13. Maqala S.	13. Uberti P.
14. Erbinartegaray A.	14. Rayasi S.
15. Orabe Y.	15. Buros R.
Substitutes
16. Bosch F.	16. Barlot G.
17. Cormenier S.	17. Boniface U.
18. Paulos L.	18. Swinton L.
19. Ariceta M.	19. Gazzotti M.
20. Germain B.	20. Retiere A.
21. Spring T.	21. Jalibert M.
22. Tuilagi M.	22. Bielle-Biarrey L.
23. Setiano E.	23. Falatea S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (26 - 19)
5', Erbinartegaray A. (Try),
8', Uberti P. (Try),
8', Reus H. (Conversion Goal),
10', Bruni R. (Try),
10', Segonds J. (Conversion Goal),
19', Reus H. (Penalty Goal),
25', Cazeaux C. 🟨,
26', Erbinartegaray A. (Try),
27', Segonds J. (Conversion Goal),
30', Reus H. (Penalty Goal),
34', Reus H. (Penalty Goal),
36', Maqala S. (Try),
36', Segonds J. (Conversion Goal),
39', Reus H. (Penalty Goal),
2nd Half (12 - 21)
50', Jantjies H. (Try),
54', Bruni R. (Try),
55', Segonds J. (Conversion Goal),
60', Bielle-Biarrey L. (Try),
61', Lucu M. (Conversion Goal),
64', Woki C. (Try),
64', Lucu M. (Conversion Goal),
75', Swinton L. (Try),
76', Lucu M. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 12 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayonne won 1.

Bordeaux Bègles's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Bordeaux Bègles may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Bordeaux Bègles has had a series of home games.

Bordeaux Bègles might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Bayonne won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 341:528. (average 18.9:29.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Bayonne won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 176:194. (average 22:24.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
3	Aviron Bayonnais	5	4	0	1	156:169	17
4	Bordeaux Begles	5	3	0	2	192:129	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aviron Bayonnais Rudby
French Top 14
25.04.26	Toulon - Aviron Bayonnais	52:26 ✺
18.04.26	Aviron Bayonnais - Section Paloise	22:54 ✺
28.03.26	Aviron Bayonnais - La Rochelle	26:15 ✺
21.03.26	Montauban - Aviron Bayonnais	26:60 ✺
28.02.26	Clermont - Aviron Bayonnais	38:15 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LLWWL
- Union Bordeaux Bègles
European Rugby Champions Cup
03.05.26	Bordeaux Bègles - Bath	38:26 ✺
French Top 14
25.04.26	Bordeaux Bègles - Montpellier	21:23 ✺
18.04.26	La Rochelle - Bordeaux Bègles	45:15 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
12.04.26	Bordeaux Bègles - Toulouse	30:15 ✺
05.04.26	Bordeaux Bègles - Leicester Tigers	64:14 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
25.10.25	Bordeaux Bègles - Aviron Bayonnais	41:12
15.02.25	Aviron Bayonnais - Bordeaux Bègles	36:32
05.10.24	Bordeaux Bègles - Aviron Bayonnais	30:27
27.04.24	Aviron Bayonnais - Bordeaux Bègles	15:34
06.01.24	Bordeaux Bègles - Aviron Bayonnais	24:23
07.01.23	Bordeaux Bègles - Aviron Bayonnais	23:15
24.09.22	Aviron Bayonnais - Bordeaux Bègles	20:15

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