Match Info

Top 14 - Round 21

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Jean-Dauger (Bayonne)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	Canal+ Live 2
United-kingdom	Premier Sports Player, Premier Sports Rugby


	Aviron Bayonnais		Section Paloise

	1	X	2
	1.73	21	2.2
	1.7	23	2.18
	1.72	20.47	2.3	Watch
	1.73	21	2.2
	1.78	24	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↑ (1.45)	21.89 ↑ (18.96)	2.2 ↓ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 53.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aviron Bayonnais
53.5%

Draw
4.2%

Section Paloise
42.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.8%

30.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aviron Bayonnais has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Aviron Bayonnais's form might have worsened.

Section Paloise has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Section Paloise's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Aviron Bayonnais - Section Paloise Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Bayonne will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 28:26

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bordelai A.	1. Kaulashvili L.
2. Bosch F.	2. Montoya J.
3. Tagi L.	3. Laclayat T.
4. Iturria A. (C)	4. Auradou H.
5. Paulos L.	5. Maximin J.
6. Fischer A.	6. Zegueur S.
7. Chouzenoux B.	7. Credoz L.
8. Capilla E.	8. Gorgadze B. (C)
9. Germain B.	9. Robson D.
10. Spring T.	10. Desperes A.
11. Tiberghien C.	11. Grandidier-Nkanang A.
12. Tuilagi M.	12. Brau-Boirie F.
13. Martocq G.	13. Gailleton E.
14. Erbinartegaray A.	14. Attissogbe T.
15. Orabe Y.	15. Maddocks J.
Substitutes
16. Calles I.	16. Delhommel Y.
17. Castillon P.	17. Biziwu D.
18. Moon A.	18. Jolmes T.
19. Ariceta M.	19. Picquette R.
20. Jantjies H.	20. Isa F.
21. Segonds J.	21. Daubagna T.
22. Mori F.	22. Simmonds J.
23. Cotet P.	23. Papidze G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (10 - 16)
13', Germain B. (Penalty Goal),
19', Desperes A. (Penalty Goal),
20', Tiberghien C. 🟨,
22', Desperes A. (Penalty Goal),
28', Montoya J. (Try),
28', Desperes A. (Conversion Goal),
38', Desperes A. (Penalty Goal),
40+2', Orabe Y. (Try),
40+2', Germain B. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (12 - 38)
43', Simmonds J. (Penalty Goal),
48', Auradou H. (Try),
48', Simmonds J. (Conversion Goal),
59', Attissogbe T. (Try),
59', Simmonds J. (Conversion Goal),
67', Capilla E. (Try),
67', Segonds J. (Conversion Goal),
72', Maddocks J. (Try),
72', Simmonds J. (Conversion Goal),
76', Erbinartegaray A. (Try),
78', Attissogbe T. (Try),
78', Simmonds J. (Conversion Goal),
80+1', Gailleton E. (Try),
80+1', Simmonds J. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayonne won 2.

Section Paloise has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Section Paloise may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Bayonne will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Bayonne will win today's game, with odds of 1.54.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Bayonne won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 289:355. (average 24.1:29.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Bayonne won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 132:125. (average 22:20.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
2	Section Paloise	5	4	0	1	204:155	18
3	Aviron Bayonnais	5	4	0	1	156:169	17

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aviron Bayonnais Rudby
French Top 14
28.03.26	Aviron Bayonnais - La Rochelle	26:15 ✺
21.03.26	Montauban - Aviron Bayonnais	26:60 ✺
28.02.26	Clermont - Aviron Bayonnais	38:15 ✺
14.02.26	Aviron Bayonnais - Racing Métro	36:41 ✺
31.01.26	Toulouse - Aviron Bayonnais	31:10 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 WWLLL
- Section Paloise
Challenge Cup Rugby
05.04.26	Zebre - Section Paloise	31:15 ✺
French Top 14
28.03.26	Section Paloise - Racing Métro	27:17 ✺
21.03.26	La Rochelle - Section Paloise	20:6 ✺
01.03.26	Section Paloise - Bordeaux Bègles	39:17 ✺
22.02.26	Perpignan - Section Paloise	40:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
11.10.25	Section Paloise - Aviron Bayonnais	47:24
26.04.25	Aviron Bayonnais - Section Paloise	27:22
14.09.24	Section Paloise - Aviron Bayonnais	51:29
09.03.24	Section Paloise - Aviron Bayonnais	42:40
18.11.23	Aviron Bayonnais - Section Paloise	35:16
25.03.23	Aviron Bayonnais - Section Paloise	20:30
23.12.22	Section Paloise - Aviron Bayonnais	22:22

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