Match Info

Challenge Cup - Play Offs - Final

Date: 23 May 2025, Friday

Location: Recreation Ground (Bath)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	Premier Sports Rugby Asia
Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 3
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Czech-republic	CT sport, CT sport Plus
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport 2
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, France 3
Iceland	Viaplay
Malta	TSN Malta 1
Mexico	Disney+
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	Sky Sport 2
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Polsat Sport 2
Portugal	Sport TV6
Romania	Digi Sport 4
Slovakia	JOJ Play, JOJ Sport
South-africa	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby
Spain	M+ Deportes 2
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Bath		Lyon

	1	X	2
	1.18	34	4.75
	1.14	34	5
	1.27	29	4
	1.17	30	5.1	Watch
	1.22	26	4.33
	1.24	26	4.29
	1.27	29	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.21 ↓ (4.66)	29.71 ↑ (25.22)	4.5 ↑ (1.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 55.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-12)

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bath
76.3%

Draw
3.1%

Lyon
20.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.9%

3.7%

76.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bath has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+56.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Bath's performance.

Lyon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-55.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lyon might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Bath - Lyon Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Bath will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Lyon will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -12 - Bath (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Bath (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 34:22

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Obano B.	1. Rey J.
2. Dunn T.	2. Chat C.
3. Stuart W.	3. Ainsley J.
4. Roux Q.	4. William T.
5. Ewels C.	5. Guillard M.
6. Hill T.	6. Cretin D.
7. Underhill S.	7. Saginadze B.
8. Reid M.	8. Botha A.
9. Spencer B. (C)	9. Couilloud B. (C)
10. Russell F.	10. Berdeu L.
11. Muir W.	11. Dumortier E.
12. Butt W.	12. Millet T.
13. Ojomoh M.	13. Maraku J.
14. Cokanasiga J.	14. Rattez V.
15. de Glanville T.	15. Niniashvili D.
Substitutes
16. Annett N.	16. Marchand G.
17. van Wyk F.	17. Kaabeche H.
18. du Toit T.	18. Aptsiauri I.
19. Molony R.	19. Lambey F.
20. Pepper G.	20. Allen L.
21. Carr-Smith T.	21. Gouzou M.
22. Donoghue C.	22. Page-Relo M.
23. Barbeary A.	23. Meliande M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (17 - 5)
3', Dumortier E. (Try),
9', Russell F. (Penalty Goal),
20', Dunn T. (Try),
21', Russell F. (Conversion Goal),
25', Ojomoh M. (Try),
25', Russell F. (Conversion Goal),
29', Underhill S. 🟨,
34', Muir W. 🟨,
2nd Half (20 - 7)
42', Russell F. (Penalty Goal),
44', Botha A. (Try),
44', Berdeu L. (Conversion Goal),
50', Obano B. (Try),
51', Russell F. (Conversion Goal),
62', Spencer B. (Try),
63', Russell F. (Conversion Goal),
71', Russell F. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

Bath is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Lyon has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Bath is seen as the favorite.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bath Rugby
English Premiership Rugby
17.05.25	Bath - Leicester Tigers	43:15 ✺
10.05.25	Bristol Rugby - Bath	36:14 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
03.05.25	Edinburgh - Bath	24:39 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
26.04.25	Bath - Newcastle Red Bulls	55:19 ✺
19.04.25	Exeter Chiefs - Bath	24:26 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLWWW
- Lyon OU
French Top 14
17.05.25	Stade Français - Lyon	31:30 ✺
10.05.25	Lyon - Section Paloise	27:29 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
04.05.25	Lyon - Racing Métro	29:15 ✺
French Top 14
26.04.25	Clermont - Lyon	39:31 ✺
19.04.25	Lyon - Montpellier	32:23 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLWLW

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