Match Info

Premiership Rugby - Round 16

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Recreation Ground (Bath)

Referee: Tempest I. (Wal)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, FloRugby.com, TNT Sports 5


	Bath		Newcastle Red Bulls

	1	X	2
	1	67	34
	1	40	15
	1	67	34
	1	50	50	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1 (1)	56 ↑ (54.5)	33.25 ↑ (28.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 73.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-46)

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bath
95.4%

Draw
1.7%

Newcastle Red Bulls
2.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

94.9%

1.7%

3.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bath has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Newcastle Red Bulls has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Bath - Newcastle Red Bulls Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 60:14

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Obano B.	1. Hancock C.
2. Dunn T.	2. McGuigan G. (C)
3. du Toit T.	3. McCallum M.
4. Hill T.	4. Clarke F.
5. Ewels C.	5. Hawkins J.
6. Bayliss J.	6. Scott A.
7. Pepper G.	7. Christie T.
8. Reid M.	8. Lee-Warner F.
9. Spencer B. (C)	9. Benitez Cruz S.
10. Russell F.	10. Connon B.
11. Arundell H.	11. Hearle A.
12. Redpath C.	12. Arnold S.
13. Harris C.	13. Beeckmans R.
14. Cokanasiga J.	14. Obatoyinbo Harrison Inumikunfayo
15. Carreras S.	15. Hodge J.
Substitutes
16. Frost D.	16. Fletcher O.
17. van Wyk F.	17. Clark J.
18. Sela V.	18. Brocklebank A.
19. Molony R.	19. Hodgson J.
20. Underhill S.	20. Mafi A.
21. Carr-Smith T.	21. Elliott J.
22. Ojomoh M.	22. Grayson E.
23. Barbeary A.	23. Wade C.
Coaches
. Christoffel van Graan J.	. Jones S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (31 - 0)
5', Pepper G. ↓, Underhill S. ↑,
7', Hill T. (Try),
8', Russell F. (Missed Conversion),
11', Arundell H. (Try),
12', Russell F. (Missed Conversion),
17', Underhill S. ↓, Pepper G. ↑,
20', Arundell H. (Try),
20', Russell F. (Conversion Goal),
23', Redpath C. (Try),
24', Russell F. (Conversion Goal),
25', Bayliss J. (Try),
26', Russell F. (Conversion Goal),
38', Dunn T. 🟥,
2nd Half (38 - 12)
45', Hodge J. ↓, Grayson E. ↑,
45', Hawkins J. ↓, Mafi A. ↑,
45', Reid M. ↓, Molony R. ↑,
46', Clarke F. ↓, Hodgson J. ↑,
46', Ewels C. ↓, Frost D. ↑,
50', McCallum M. ↓, Brocklebank A. ↑,
50', Hancock C. ↓, Clark J. ↑,
52', Obatoyinbo Harrison Inumikunfayo ↓, Wade C. ↑,
55', Dunn T. ↓, Reid M. ↑,
56', Hearle A. (Try),
57', Connon B. (Missed Conversion),
59', Spencer B. ↓, Carr-Smith T. ↑,
60', Pepper G. ↓, Underhill S. ↑,
60', du Toit T. ↓, Sela V. ↑,
60', Obano B. ↓, van Wyk F. ↑,
60', Redpath C. ↓, Ojomoh M. ↑,
60', Reid M. ↓, Barbeary A. ↑,
60', Arundell H. (Try),
61', Russell F. (Missed Conversion),
61', McGuigan G. ↓, Fletcher O. ↑,
62', Hearle A. (Try),
63', Connon B. (Conversion Goal),
65', Carreras S. (Try),
65', Russell F. (Conversion Goal),
67', Carreras S. (Try),
67', Lee-Warner F. 🟨,
68', Russell F. (Missed Conversion),
72', Arundell H. (Try),
72', Russell F. (Conversion Goal),
73', Frost D. (Try),
74', Benitez Cruz S. ↓, Elliott J. ↑,
74', Russell F. (Conversion Goal),
76', Harris C. (Try),
77', Russell F. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Premiership Rugby (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bath won 5.

Recent performances by Bath have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Newcastle has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Bath may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Newcastle has had a series of home games.

In this match, Bath is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bath won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 529:390. (average 26.5:19.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Bath won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 221:154. (average 27.6:19.3).

Outrights of English Premiership Rugby for now

Bath: 29.53% Newcastle Red Bulls: 0.65%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
3	Bath	2	2	0	0	73:51	10
9	Newcastle Red Bulls	2	0	0	2	45:83	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bath Rugby
English Premiership Rugby
10.05.26	Exeter Chiefs - Bath	35:12 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
03.05.26	Bordeaux Bègles - Bath	38:26 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
25.04.26	Northampton Saints - Bath	41:38 ✺
18.04.26	Bath - Harlequins	48:15 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
10.04.26	Bath - Northampton Saints	43:41 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LLLWW
- Newcastle Red Bulls
English Premiership Rugby
10.05.26	Newcastle Red Bulls - Harlequins	17:76 ✺
24.04.26	Newcastle Red Bulls - Bristol Rugby	19:52 ✺
18.04.26	Leicester Tigers - Newcastle Red Bulls	62:3 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
04.04.26	Newcastle Red Bulls - La Rochelle	18:26 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
27.03.26	Newcastle Red Bulls - Exeter Chiefs	14:38 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

English Premiership Rugby
21.12.25	Newcastle Red Bulls - Bath	14:50
26.04.25	Bath - Newcastle Red Bulls	55:19
English Premiership Rugby Cup
07.03.25	Newcastle Red Bulls - Bath	29:41
English Premiership Rugby
21.12.24	Newcastle Red Bulls - Bath	15:40
10.05.24	Newcastle Red Bulls - Bath	17:28
14.10.23	Bath - Newcastle Red Bulls	34:26
31.12.22	Bath - Newcastle Red Bulls	24:16

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