Match Info

Challenge Cup - Round 4

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	FloSports app
World	EPCR Rugby TV


	Black Lion		Zebre

	1	X	2
	2.5	19	1.57
	2.33	22	1.62
	2.31	22.82	1.67
	2.38	21	1.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↑ (1.89)	21.21 ↑ (20.33)	1.62 ↓ (1.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 46.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Black Lion
38.7%

Draw
4.3%

Zebre
56.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.7%

4.5%

46.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Black Lion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Black Lion's form might have worsened.

Zebre has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Zebre's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	0%	85.7%

Black Lion - Zebre Predictions

Users Predictions: Zebre will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Zebre will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 22:24

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kakovin V.	1. Pitinari J.
2. Kvatadze I.	2. Di Bartolomeo T.
3. Chkhartishvili G.	3. Hasa M.
4. Babunashvili M. (C)	4. Canali M.
5. Epremidze D.	5. Krumov L. (C)
6. Tsikhistavi L.	6. Stavile B.
7. Tsutskiridze G.	7. Locatelli S.
8. Sinauridze G.	8. Odiase D.
9. Peranidze T.	9. Fusco A.
10. Tsirekidze L.	10. Da Re G.
11. Todua S.	11. Gesi S.
12. Kakhoidze T.	12. Mazza D.
13. Taptladze D.	13. Zanon M.
14. Tabutsadze A.	14. Bertaccini G.
15. Aptsiauri S.	15. Pani L.
Substitutes
16. Tchamiashvili T.	16. Ribaldi G.
17. Khatiashvili N.	17. Franceschetto L.
18. Darbaidze K.	18. Pieretto E.
19. Ganiashvili G.	19. Carrera F.
20. Kervalishvili G.	20. Ortombina A.
21. Spenderashvili G.	21. Garcia G.
22. Lutidze Z.	22. Roger M.
23. Makhatadze R.	23. Ruggeri D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (14 - 14)
3', Kvatadze I. (Try),
4', Tsirekidze L. (Conversion Goal),
17', Pitinari J. (Try),
18', Da Re G. (Conversion Goal),
33', Kakovin V. 🟨,
33', Hasa M. (Try),
34', Da Re G. (Conversion Goal),
40', Canali M. 🟨,
40+1', Kvatadze I. (Try),
40+2', Tsirekidze L. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (0 - 14)
58', Locatelli S. 🟨,
64', Pani L. (Try),
65', Da Re G. (Conversion Goal),
80', Da Re G. (Try),
80+1', Da Re G. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Zebre is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Black Lion may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Black Lion Rugby
Challenge Cup Rugby
10.01.26	Montauban - Black Lion	28:31 ✺
13.12.25	Connacht - Black Lion	52:0 ✺
06.12.25	Black Lion - Montpellier	13:24 ✺
19.01.25	Edinburgh - Black Lion	36:15 ✺
11.01.25	Black Lion - Aviron Bayonnais	16:41 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLLLL
- Zebre Rugby
Challenge Cup Rugby
11.01.26	Zebre - Ospreys	23:19 ✺
United Rugby Championship
03.01.26	Glasgow Warriors - Zebre	47:10 ✺
27.12.25	Zebre - Benetton Treviso	23:37 ✺
20.12.25	Benetton Treviso - Zebre	21:15 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
12.12.25	Montpellier - Zebre	31:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WLLLL

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