Match Info

Challenge Cup - Round 2

Date: 13 December 2025, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Sports MAX 8
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player


	Connacht		Black Lion

	1	X	2
	1.03	51	11
	1.02	40	12
	1.01	41.31	15.4	Watch
	1.01	41	13
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.02 ↑ (1.02)	43.33 ↑ (28.73)	12.85 ↓ (16.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 44.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-23)

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Connacht
90.7%

Draw
2.1%

Black Lion
7.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

91.1%

3.2%

5.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Connacht has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Black Lion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Connacht - Black Lion Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Connacht will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 34:11

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Duggan J.	1. Khatiashvili N.
2. Heffernan D.	2. Kvatadze I.
3. Illo S.	3. Darbaidze K.
4. Murray D.	4. Babunashvili M. (C)
5. Murray N.	5. Epremidze D.
6. Boyle P. (C)	6. Tsikhistavi L.
7. Hurley-Langton S.	7. Tsutskiridze G.
8. Jansen S.	8. Sinauridze G.
9. Blade C.	9. Peranidze T.
10. Carty J.	10. Tsirekidze L.
11. Bolton S.	11. Aptsiauri S.
12. Forde C.	12. Kakhoidze T.
13. Gavin H.	13. Taptladze D.
14. Mullins C.	14. Tabutsadze A.
15. Gilbert S.	15. Takaishvili L.
Substitutes
16. Tierney-Martin D.	16. Mamukashvili S.
17. Bohan B.	17. Kakovin V.
18. Barrett F.	18. Chkhartishvili G.
19. Joyce J.	19. Ganiashvili G.
20. O'Brien S.	20. Kervalishvili G.
21. Devine M.	21. Spenderashvili G.
22. Hawkshaw D.	22. Lutidze Z.
23. West H.	23. Todua S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (38 - 0)
1', Boyle P. (Try),
2', Gilbert S. (Conversion Goal),
7', Aptsiauri S. 🟨,
9', Boyle P. (Try),
10', Gilbert S. (Conversion Goal),
16', Blade C. (Try),
29', Boyle P. (Try),
29', Gilbert S. (Conversion Goal),
33', Illo S. (Try),
40', Bolton S. (Try),
40', Gilbert S. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (14 - 0)
54', Blade C. (Try),
54', Gilbert S. (Conversion Goal),
67', Bolton S. (Try),
68', Gilbert S. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Connacht may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Connacht is the clear favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Connacht Rugby
Challenge Cup Rugby
07.12.25	Ospreys - Connacht	24:21 ✺
United Rugby Championship
29.11.25	Connacht - Sharks	44:17 ✺
25.10.25	Munster - Connacht	17:15 ✺
17.10.25	Connacht - Blue Bulls	27:28 ✺
11.10.25	Cardiff Rugby - Connacht	14:8 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LWLLL
- Black Lion Rugby
Challenge Cup Rugby
06.12.25	Black Lion - Montpellier	13:24 ✺
19.01.25	Edinburgh - Black Lion	36:15 ✺
11.01.25	Black Lion - Aviron Bayonnais	16:41 ✺
15.12.24	Llanelli Scarlets - Black Lion	36:18 ✺
07.12.24	Black Lion - Vannes	22:19 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLLLW

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