Match Info

European Rugby Champions Cup - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade Chaban-Delmas (Bordeaux)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Rugby
France	beIN Sports 1, France 2
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
Portugal	Sport TV7
South-africa	SuperSport Rugby
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
World	EPCR Rugby TV


	Bordeaux Bègles		Toulouse

	1	X	2
	1.83	21	2.05
	1.82	23	2.01
	1.8	23	2
	1.8	20	2.02
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↑ (1.8)	21.75 ↑ (21)	2.02 ↓ (2.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 60.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bordeaux Bègles
50.5%

Draw
4.2%

Toulouse
45.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.2%

4.4%

44.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

4.3%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bordeaux Bègles has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bordeaux Bègles than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Bordeaux Bègles - Toulouse Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Bordeaux Bègles will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 31:29

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Poirot J.	1. Ainuu D.
2. Lamothe M.	2. Mauvaka P.
3. Sadie C.	3. Aldegheri D.
4. Palu B.	4. Flament T.
5. Coleman A.	5. Meafou E.
6. Bochaton P.	6. Cros F.
7. Woki C.	7. Willis J.
8. Gazzotti M.	8. Jelonch A.
9. Lucu M. (C)	9. Dupont A. (C)
10. Jalibert M.	10. Ntamack R.
11. Bielle-Biarrey L.	11. Lebel M.
12. Moefana Y.	12. Chocobares S.
13. Penaud D.	13. Gourgues K.
14. Uberti P.	14. Thomas T.
15. Rayasi S.	15. Ramos T.
Substitutes
16. Barlot G.	16. Marchand J.
17. Perchaud M.	17. Baille C.
18. Tameifuna B.	18. Merkler J.
19. Jacobs T.	19. Brennan J.
20. Vergnes-Taillefer B.	20. Banos L.
21. Matiu T.	21. Ntamack T.
22. Retiere A.	22. Graou P.
23. Reus H.	23. Kinghorn B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (5 - 12)
23', Lamothe M. (Try),
25', Ntamack R. (Try),
26', Ramos T. (Conversion Goal),
37', Aldegheri D. 🟥,
39', Thomas T. (Try),
2nd Half (25 - 3)
42', Ramos T. (Penalty Goal),
46', Jalibert M. (Try),
47', Lucu M. (Conversion Goal),
56', Dupont A. 🟨,
58', Tameifuna B. (Try),
58', Lucu M. (Conversion Goal),
63', Lucu M. (Penalty Goal),
74', Retiere A. (Try),
78', Lucu M. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bordeaux Bègles won 3.

Now, both teams are in good form.

Bordeaux Bègles may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bordeaux Bègles won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 442:562. (average 22.1:28.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Bordeaux Bègles won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 260:212. (average 28.9:23.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Union Bordeaux Bègles
European Rugby Champions Cup
05.04.26	Bordeaux Bègles - Leicester Tigers	64:14 ✺
French Top 14
28.03.26	Lyon - Bordeaux Bègles	17:21 ✺
22.03.26	Bordeaux Bègles - Toulouse	44:20 ✺
01.03.26	Section Paloise - Bordeaux Bègles	39:17 ✺
14.02.26	Bordeaux Bègles - Castres	57:32 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWWLW
- Stade Toulousain
European Rugby Champions Cup
04.04.26	Toulouse - Bristol Rugby	59:26 ✺
French Top 14
28.03.26	Toulouse - Montpellier	45:29 ✺
22.03.26	Bordeaux Bègles - Toulouse	44:20 ✺
28.02.26	Toulouse - Montauban	68:13 ✺
15.02.26	Stade Français - Toulouse	9:13 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
22.03.26	Bordeaux Bègles - Toulouse	44:20
12.10.25	Toulouse - Bordeaux Bègles	56:13
28.06.25	Toulouse - Bordeaux Bègles	39:33 OT
European Rugby Champions Cup
04.05.25	Bordeaux Bègles - Toulouse	35:18
French Top 14
23.03.25	Bordeaux Bègles - Toulouse	32:24
29.09.24	Toulouse - Bordeaux Bègles	12:16
28.06.24	Toulouse - Bordeaux Bègles	59:3

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