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Current Win Probability
Bristol Rugby 42.7%
Draw 4.3%
Saracens 53%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
45%
4.7%
50.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
44%
4.6%
51.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Bristol Rugby has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)
Saracens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bristol Rugby than the current prediction. (+1.3%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Saracens than the current prediction. (-1.5%)
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Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 29:31
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Genge E.
1. Mawi E.
2. Thacker H.
2. George J.
3. Kloska G.
3. Street M.
4. Dun J.
4. Itoje M. (C)
5. Batley J.
5. Tizard H.
6. Owen J.
6. Isiekwe N.
7. Harding F. (C)
7. Earl B.
8. Grondona S.
8. Willis T.
9. Marmion K.
9. Bracken C.
10. Jordan T.
10. Burke F.
11. Ibitoye G.
11. Segun R.
12. Janse van Rensburg B.
12. Hartley O.
13. Moroni M.
13. Tompkins N.
14. Ravouvou K.
14. Caluori N.
15. Heward N.
15. Malins M.
Substitutes
16. Gwilliam T.
16. Dan T.
17. Woolmore J.
17. Carre R.
18. Lahiff M.
18. Clarey A.
19. Taylor G.
19. McFarland T.
20. Cripps K.
20. Michelow N.
21. Randall H.
21. van Zyl I.
22. Williams J.
22. Farrell O.
23. Bates J.
23. Elliott T.
Coaches
. Lam P.
. McCall M.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (21 - 34)
2', Harding F. (Try),
3', Jordan T. (Conversion Goal),
6', Burke F. (Penalty Goal),
17', Willis T. (Try),
17', Burke F. (Missed Conversion),
19', Tizard H. (Try),
20', Burke F. (Conversion Goal),
24', Thacker H. (Try),
25', Jordan T. (Conversion Goal),
26', Segun R. (Try),
27', Burke F. (Conversion Goal),
29', Earl B. (Try),
30', Burke F. (Conversion Goal),
32', Moroni M. (Try),
33', Janse van Rensburg B. (Conversion Goal),
36', Burke F. (Try),
37', Burke F. (Missed Conversion),
39', Street M. ↓, Clarey A. ↑,
2nd Half (5 - 7)
42', Ibitoye G. ↓, Bates J. ↑,
51', Marmion K. ↓, Randall H. ↑,
54', George J. ↓, Dan T. ↑,
54', Mawi E. ↓, Carre R. ↑,
54', Segun R. ↓, Elliott T. ↑,
54', Burke F. ↓, Farrell O. ↑,
56', Thacker H. ↓, Gwilliam T. ↑,
56', Genge E. ↓, Woolmore J. ↑,
57', Kloska G. ↓, Lahiff M. ↑,
57', Tizard H. ↓, McFarland T. ↑,
62', McFarland T. 🟨,
63', Grondona S. ↓, Ivanishvili L. ↑,
66', Bracken C. ↓, van Zyl I. ↑,
68', Jordan T. ↓, Williams J. ↑,
72', Willis T. ↓, Michelow N. ↑,
73', Itoje M. 🟨,
79', 🟨,
80', Elliott T. (Try),
80', Farrell O. (Conversion Goal),
Preview
This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ European Rugby Champions Cup and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ European Rugby Champions Cup).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bristol won 0.
The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
Bristol may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Bristol won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 274:490. (average 18.3:32.7).
Including home matches between the teams, Bristol won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 113:201. (average 16.1:28.7).
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United-kingdom
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Genge E. 
Mawi E. 
Grondona S. 
Marmion K. 
Jordan T. 
Janse van Rensburg B. 
Tompkins N. 
Heward N. 
McFarland T. 
McCall M. 
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